On 07/07/2017 10:24, Vidcapper wrote:
Well, if he shares his brother's talent for selling BS to the gullible,
then he'll do all right...

Goodbye Paul - Plonk!

--
Nick Gardner
Otter Valley, Devon
20 m amsl
http://www.ottervalleyweather.me.uk

On 07/07/2017 20:38, Nick Gardner wrote:
On 07/07/2017 10:24, Vidcapper wrote:
Well, if he shares his brother's talent for selling BS to the
gullible, then he'll do all right...

Goodbye Paul - Plonk!

You're killfilling him for making a light hearted political comment??

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

On 08/07/2017 07:56, Col wrote:
On 07/07/2017 20:38, Nick Gardner wrote:
On 07/07/2017 10:24, Vidcapper wrote:
Well, if he shares his brother's talent for selling BS to the
gullible, then he'll do all right...

Goodbye Paul - Plonk!

You're killfilling him for making a light hearted political comment??


Just imagine if he was a rap fan...


--

Paul Hyett, Cheltenham

On Thursday, 6 July 2017 09:53:08 UTC+1, wrote:

And this isn't the first time. If all their expertise and their very
expensive supercomputer can't even get a forecast right 12 hours ahead then
whats the point of them?

They're trying to forecast the popping up of convective cells using mathematics. Often the wet and windy weather we get in the UK that is forecast hasn't even formed before it's forecast. Using entirely mathematical equations. It's a miracle they get close - and for that we should be thankful.

Out of interest, do you come on here to praise weather forecasters when they get it right?

Richard

On Friday, July 7, 2017 at 6:53:09 PM UTC+1, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 07/07/17 15:00, d wrote:
On Fri, 7 Jul 2017 14:54:00 +0100
Metman2012 wrote:
On 07/07/2017 09:42, d wrote:
On Thu, 6 Jul 2017 19:09:56 +0100
Will Hand wrote:
On Thu, 6 Jul 2017 18:32:07 +0100
I'm wondering if part of the issue is the presentation. The media
broadcasters
should have been aware that many places were to remain dry and present the
story as such. As this is what the models were saying. It is very unfair to
blame the models, that is what upset me with Spud's original post.

The BBC don't make up the charts themselves, the met office provide them.
Either the computer models provided the charts or they were altered manually
by someone who didn't believe the computer. Either way they got it badly
wrong. Never mind no thunderstorms, there was barely any cloud. Thats not
a minor slip up, its a total forecasting failure.

I was looking at the weather radar pages yesterday and there were quite
a lot of thunderstorms over London and over East Anglia (going by the
lightning page). You don't say where you live, but I live on the western
edge of the warning area and we got no rain, but having read the
forecast I wasn't really expecting any. Similarly I never heard anybody
saying 'storms everywhere'. Who was it who forecast storms everywhere?
It was a low probability, high impact event and so the forecast was
broadly correct IMHO.

Storms turned up in the north london area last night heading east. However BBC
weather both on the online chart and the broadcast were showing pretty
comprehensive rain cover for a line roughly stretching from oxford in the east
to ashford in the west via london coming up from the south coast for 9am
yesterday on wednesday evening. If they can't get it even close to correct only
12 hours in advance then their modelling has serious problems IMO.


As I said, theirs wasn't the only model to get it wrong. Also, the
forecaster on in the early morning TV made sure to play down the event.

Several days before the event, the bulk of the rain was forecast to
reach the London area for Friday, but the models kept backtracking each run.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
“Like sewage, smartphones, and Donald Trump, some things are just
inevitable.� [The Doctor]

I think the model output is often remarkably good, the issuing of warnings not so, and the wording often careless.

My main issue with the MetO is that they often seem blissfully unaware of the actual weather, and never look beyond the model.

It's been foggy for hours at Land's End, yet the forecasts has relentlessly shown good visibility, even for now. This sort of thing has become so common it's the norm, to my mind down to over reliance on models and lack of human common sense & a few basic checks to make the model output somewhere close to reality.

This, apparently is the Good Visibility now http://www.landsendweather.info/

In fact this is Scilly at sea level http://www.scillyman.co.uk/Lowertown_Cam.html so I see little hope of imminent improvement.

Sometime this afternoon they'll cotton on & change the forecast - just as it clears, based on recent attempts.

Still, with the warmth & humidity it's great weather for being in the sea. Cornwall is largely watersports rather than buckets & spades these day (that's more Torbay) so a bit of mizzle has little impact to the number on the beach sea http://www.sloop-inn.co.uk/live-surf...ve-web-camera/ (camera scrolls around.

(Just my bit to add to everyone elses!)

Anyway Yellow warning for swimmers in Cornwall? http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reursst.gif

Graham
Penzance

On Saturday, 8 July 2017 12:03:22 UTC+1, Richard Dixon wrote:
On Thursday, 6 July 2017 09:53:08 UTC+1, wrote:

And this isn't the first time. If all their expertise and their very
expensive supercomputer can't even get a forecast right 12 hours ahead then
whats the point of them?

They're trying to forecast the popping up of convective cells using mathematics. Often the wet and windy weather we get in the UK that is forecast hasn't even formed before it's forecast. Using entirely mathematical equations. It's a miracle they get close - and for that we should be thankful.

Out of interest, do you come on here to praise weather forecasters when they get it right?

Richard

Hi Richard

By a strange coincidence I've also noticed the "popping up of convective cells" this morning across the southwest of England. Nothing overly dramatic, but the forecasting of the isolated showers was very well forecast by the NWP produced by the Met Office. I am always having a go at the Met Office, as most people here will attest, and I wasn't exactly clear of the underlying cause, so well done Met Office.

http://www.xmetman.com/wp/2017/07/08...west-dartmoor/

As regards the lightning and thunderstorms of the other day, I think the Met Office did very well with their yellow alert. Medium level thunderstorms are just as dangerous as those from classic low level CB's. I was on night duty on the 9th of July 1984 at Binbrook and can remember quite clearly the lightning from the castellanus as it tracked north and went on to set York Minster alight.

http://www.xmetman.com/wp/2017/07/06...ndery-showers/

I still don't like how the whole alert/warning/impact service that they run works in practice. I'm not clear for instance how and when they would raise the alert state to amber or red for any particular storm. It would no doubt be for the intensity of the rain, rather than for the intensity of the sferics.

Bruce.

On Fri, 7 Jul 2017 18:53:07 +0100
Graham P Davis wrote:
On 07/07/17 15:00, d wrote:
weather both on the online chart and the broadcast were showing pretty
comprehensive rain cover for a line roughly stretching from oxford in the
east
to ashford in the west via london coming up from the south coast for 9am
yesterday on wednesday evening. If they can't get it even close to correct
only
12 hours in advance then their modelling has serious problems IMO.


As I said, theirs wasn't the only model to get it wrong. Also, the
forecaster on in the early morning TV made sure to play down the event.

Several days before the event, the bulk of the rain was forecast to
reach the London area for Friday, but the models kept backtracking each run.

Well they're predicted rain in the SE for tuesday. Lets see if it materialises
or its just another false alarm like the last 2 times they've predicted it
in the last month.

--
Spud

On Thursday, 6 July 2017 09:53:08 UTC+1, wrote:
Even 12 hours ago the BBC weather was predicting rain and storms over a
substantial part of london and the southwest.

[looks out the window]

Blue sky. And looking at the rainfall radar the nearest rain is in
cambridgshire and calais.

And this isn't the first time. If all their expertise and their very
expensive supercomputer can't even get a forecast right 12 hours ahead then
whats the point of them?

--
Spud

They are useless . They've still got a weather warning for rain, yes rain, for London and SE England. UKMO have been OTT for the past 20 years , Its pathetic, in fact their website forecast and predictions are so contradictory they should all hand in their notice and give the task to Piers Corbyn at least he'd be just as accurate and cheaper. UKMO are a farce.

On Mon, 10 Jul 2017 09:37:53 -0700 (PDT)
Lawrence Jenkins wrote:
On Thursday, 6 July 2017 09:53:08 UTC+1, wrote:
Even 12 hours ago the BBC weather was predicting rain and storms over a
substantial part of london and the southwest.
=20
[looks out the window]
=20
Blue sky. And looking at the rainfall radar the nearest rain is in=20
cambridgshire and calais.
=20
And this isn't the first time. If all their expertise and their very=20
expensive supercomputer can't even get a forecast right 12 hours ahead th=
en
whats the point of them?
=20
--=20
Spud

They are useless . They've still got a weather warning for rain, yes rain, =
for London and SE England. UKMO have been OTT for the past 20 years , Its p=
athetic, in fact their website forecast and predictions are so contradicto=
ry they should all hand in their notice and give the task to Piers Corbyn a=
t least he'd be just as accurate and cheaper. UKMO are a farce.

Certainly they ballsed up another rain prediction. Last nights forecast was
light rain for the whole of london and the south by 8am. Its 9.30 am and
its still as dry as a bone out there. Looking at the rainfall radar the
nearest rain is in wiltshire. There's a prediction for heavy rain for tonight.
I won't hold my breath given that the main front over cornwall looks like its
weakening already.

--
Spud

On 11/07/17 09:33, d wrote:
On Mon, 10 Jul 2017 09:37:53 -0700 (PDT)
Lawrence Jenkins wrote:
On Thursday, 6 July 2017 09:53:08 UTC+1, wrote:
Even 12 hours ago the BBC weather was predicting rain and storms over a
substantial part of london and the southwest.
=20
[looks out the window]
=20
Blue sky. And looking at the rainfall radar the nearest rain is in=20
cambridgshire and calais.
=20
And this isn't the first time. If all their expertise and their very=20
expensive supercomputer can't even get a forecast right 12 hours ahead th=
en
whats the point of them?
=20
--=20
Spud

They are useless . They've still got a weather warning for rain, yes rain, =
for London and SE England. UKMO have been OTT for the past 20 years , Its p=
athetic, in fact their website forecast and predictions are so contradicto=
ry they should all hand in their notice and give the task to Piers Corbyn a=
t least he'd be just as accurate and cheaper. UKMO are a farce.

Certainly they ballsed up another rain prediction. Last nights forecast was
light rain for the whole of london and the south by 8am. Its 9.30 am and
its still as dry as a bone out there. Looking at the rainfall radar the
nearest rain is in wiltshire. There's a prediction for heavy rain for tonight.
I won't hold my breath given that the main front over cornwall looks like its
weakening already.


At 0900, some rain was already close to Brighton with some light stuff
over Kent. I think that puts the rain a little closer to London than
Wiltshire. In addition, I don't see any evidence for the main rain area
weakening.

A quick look at the other model runs yesterday show them to have been
going for the same story as the Met Office, much as when you last blamed
the Met Office for supposedly getting a forecast wrong.


--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
“Like sewage, smartphones, and Donald Trump, some things are just
inevitable.� [The Doctor]