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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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#11
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On Thursday, 5 October 2017 12:21:56 UTC+1, Graham P Davis wrote:
Met Office computer forecast was also going for storms on the Sunday. When someone asked me in the pub on Monday evening what the weather would be like on on Friday at Wentworth - he was going to the golf tournament - I warned him that there'd be storm force winds. In each successive run of the computer forecast during the week, it looked as though it was chickening out and if I'd seen the guy on Wednesday evening, I'd've told him not to worry! I think in Glenn Shutts' paper (think it might be an internal Met Office paper) on the storm about a "successful fine mesh forecast" (here fine mesh was 50km!) there was talk about a 5-day run being absolutely bang on - so this seems to tally with it ! Richard |
#12
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In message , N_Cook
writes Reviewing last night's plots, the next time I'll look at the necking in the near real-time geopotential plots and minimum of the (don't know what the term is) dam-km product , for the minimum value A lot of interesting stuff on this paper, about the meteorology and how the French (in English) handled the 1987 Great Felling 15–16 October 1987 - American Meteorological Society http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/...)004%3C0517:PO AESO%3E2.0.CO%3B2 (hyphen break) "... Forecasts issued by DMN gave very strong and repeated warnings to the media, security agencies, and specialized users. ... Three to 4 days prior to the event, (French) forecasts mentioned the possibility of a severe storm. ..." but if the numerical model outputs had been slavishly observed, those warnings could have neen rescinded. Isn't it also the case that the Met Office forecasts were expecting the strongest winds to be over northern France, so that there's not necessarily any significant difference between what the French and the British forecasters were expecting. -- John Hall "Three o'clock is always too late or too early for anything you want to do." Jean-Paul Sartre (1905-1980) |
#13
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On 05/10/2017 12:32, Richard Dixon wrote:
On Thursday, 5 October 2017 12:21:56 UTC+1, Graham P Davis wrote: Met Office computer forecast was also going for storms on the Sunday. When someone asked me in the pub on Monday evening what the weather would be like on on Friday at Wentworth - he was going to the golf tournament - I warned him that there'd be storm force winds. In each successive run of the computer forecast during the week, it looked as though it was chickening out and if I'd seen the guy on Wednesday evening, I'd've told him not to worry! I think in Glenn Shutts' paper (think it might be an internal Met Office paper) on the storm about a "successful fine mesh forecast" (here fine mesh was 50km!) there was talk about a 5-day run being absolutely bang on - so this seems to tally with it ! Richard I have a copy of the official report (unfortunately I can see neither a MO number nor an author. There is a letter from one Norman Lynagh sent to the Independent, which actually defended the Met Office from the opprobrium heaped on it by the tabloids. One thing that came out of the storm was the Met Office Press Office and I benefited by being the first full time press officer (before me as a manager and a part time Press and Public Officer. The report is very matter of fact and doesn't try and obfuscate the facts, in keeping with the scientific organisation the Met Office was in those days. Not sure it would be the same today though. |
#14
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Metman2012 wrote:
On 05/10/2017 12:32, Richard Dixon wrote: On Thursday, 5 October 2017 12:21:56 UTC+1, Graham P Davis wrote: Met Office computer forecast was also going for storms on the Sunday. When someone asked me in the pub on Monday evening what the weather would be like on on Friday at Wentworth - he was going to the golf tournament - I warned him that there'd be storm force winds. In each successive run of the computer forecast during the week, it looked as though it was chickening out and if I'd seen the guy on Wednesday evening, I'd've told him not to worry! I think in Glenn Shutts' paper (think it might be an internal Met Office paper) on the storm about a "successful fine mesh forecast" (here fine mesh was 50km!) there was talk about a 5-day run being absolutely bang on - so this seems to tally with it ! Richard I have a copy of the official report (unfortunately I can see neither a MO number nor an author. There is a letter from one Norman Lynagh sent to the Independent, which actually defended the Met Office from the opprobrium heaped on it by the tabloids. One thing that came out of the storm was the Met Office Press Office and I benefited by being the first full time press officer (before me as a manager and a part time Press and Public Officer. I remember writing that letter. I got a telephone call from someone at The Independent who was wanting to write a piece slamming the Met Office for incompetence. I said it wasn't quite like that and we ended up having a very sensible conversation. The upshot was that I was invited to write a letter expressing my opinions, which I did. On the evening of the day following the overnight mayhem ITV did a live programme on the storm lasting 30 or 60 minutes (can't remember which). It was fronted by Trevor Phillips who has gone on to greater things since then. To enhance the live 'feel' it was all done amongst the journalists in the ITV newsroom with hand-held cameras. Nothing was prepared in advance so it really was 'seat of the pants' stuff. Sat on the corner of a journalist's desk, I was interviewed by Trevor Phillips. He asked me a whole series of leading questions with the obvious intention that I should lambast the Met Office. I would have none of it and gave what I think were reasoned responses. I don't think ITV were too happy about it. They had seen it as an opportunity to have a go at one of the bastions of the Establishment. Happy memories! -- Norman Lynagh Tideswell, Derbyshire 303m a.s.l. https://peakdistrictweather.org Twitter: @TideswellWeathr |
#15
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On Thursday, October 5, 2017 at 5:07:37 PM UTC+1, John Hall wrote:
In message , N_Cook writes Reviewing last night's plots, the next time I'll look at the necking in the near real-time geopotential plots and minimum of the (don't know what the term is) dam-km product , for the minimum value A lot of interesting stuff on this paper, about the meteorology and how the French (in English) handled the 1987 Great Felling 15–16 October 1987 - American Meteorological Society http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/...)004%3C0517:PO AESO%3E2.0.CO%3B2 (hyphen break) "... Forecasts issued by DMN gave very strong and repeated warnings to the media, security agencies, and specialized users. ... Three to 4 days prior to the event, (French) forecasts mentioned the possibility of a severe storm. ..." but if the numerical model outputs had been slavishly observed, those warnings could have neen rescinded. Isn't it also the case that the Met Office forecasts were expecting the strongest winds to be over northern France, so that there's not necessarily any significant difference between what the French and the British forecasters were expecting. -- The interview with Jack Scott on Thames News says as much about the storm force winds staying across the Channel. I think Michael Fish has said the same in interviews over the years. |
#16
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My daughter was born on the night of the 16 th Oct 1987 at St James hospital Leeds, it was a very windy night but not exceptional in Leeds, but I did listen to all the news reports coming in . I mentioned Michael Fish in my father of the bride speech on 10 th September 2017, By chance at the Grande hotel Brighton . Along the coast where some of the highest gusts were measured.
The wedding was exciting also as we had to evacuate the hotel due to a bomb threat, and continue next door in the Hilton. Didn’t help that the TUC conference was on next door. Happy days. |
#17
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On 02/10/2017 20:51, Scott W wrote:
I've written a few lines on October 1987. Similar to my account of the January 1987 cold spell would anyone be interested in adding their account of that night to this blog? http://wp.me/p2VSmb-2no I've just seen what GEM met model is predicting for 15-16 Oct 2017. Same track of the low across Biscay. All too far off and a definite outlier of the main 5 global met models though. |
#18
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On 07/10/2017 08:48, N_Cook wrote:
On 02/10/2017 20:51, Scott W wrote: I've written a few lines on October 1987. Similar to my account of the January 1987 cold spell would anyone be interested in adding their account of that night to this blog? http://wp.me/p2VSmb-2no I've just seen what GEM met model is predicting for 15-16 Oct 2017. Same track of the low across Biscay. All too far off and a definite outlier of the main 5 global met models though. I've only just seen the latest NHC Atlantic TD output (Nate + another) http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 , explains the otherwise "errant" GEM manifestation of a compact mid-atlantic low on the UK scene for 15-16 oct |
#19
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On 07/10/2017 08:48, N_Cook wrote:
On 02/10/2017 20:51, Scott W wrote: I've written a few lines on October 1987. Similar to my account of the January 1987 cold spell would anyone be interested in adding their account of that night to this blog? http://wp.me/p2VSmb-2no I've just seen what GEM met model is predicting for 15-16 Oct 2017. Same track of the low across Biscay. All too far off and a definite outlier of the main 5 global met models though. Looks like an interesting 30th birthday, for the 1987 Great Storm of 15/16 Oct, with TS/TD Ophelia taking the role , along the same track, where's Michael Fish when you need him. All the global met models agree she will at least get to Portugal. This is the latest National Huricane Centre assessment 000 WTNT42 KNHC 100252 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 1100 PM AST Mon Oct 09 2017 Ophelia's center is just south of a broad curved band of deep convection. At synoptic time, the subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were both at 2.5, or 35 kt, while the CIMSS SATCON was at 43 kt. Given the increasingly curved structure of the bands during the last couple of hours, the initial intensity is set at 45 kt, a bit higher than the previous advisory. While the tropical storm is fighting some moderate vertical shear currently, the global models suggest that this should lighten some between now and about day 4 as Ophelia resides between the mid-latitude and subtropical westerlies. Even though the system will be traversing cool 26C SSTs, upper-tropospheric temperatures likely will also be cool, allowing for deep convection to continue. The mid-level moisture analyzed in the SHIPS guidance appears to be somewhat dry, though the total precipitable water imagery shows distinct moistening near the system during the last couple of days. The official intensity forecast shows gradual intensification through day 3, then slow weakening thereafter. This is close to a blend of the LGEM statistical guidance and the HWRF dynamical model and is slightly above that of the previous advisory. The initial position has fairly small uncertainty as the low-level center is along the southern edge of the deep convection, as seen in the GOES-16 shortwave infrared imagery. Ophelia is moving toward the northeast at about 6 kt - somewhat unexpectedly - this evening. Despite this, the model guidance suggests that a ridge will soon build in strongly north of Ophelia and force the tropical storm to the southeast and then south during the next couple of days. Around day 3, Ophelia should get kicked out toward the east-northeast by an approaching trough in the mid-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast is north of the previous forecast in the short term and east-northeast in the long term, and is in between the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and the previous forecast. The initial tropical-storm-force wind radii was adjusted outward based upon a 2137Z AMSU size analysis. The official size forecast is based upon the RVCN consensus technique. |
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