On Thursday, 5 October 2017 12:21:56 UTC+1, Graham P Davis wrote:

Met Office computer forecast was also going for storms on the Sunday.
When someone asked me in the pub on Monday evening what the weather
would be like on on Friday at Wentworth - he was going to the golf
tournament - I warned him that there'd be storm force winds. In each
successive run of the computer forecast during the week, it looked as
though it was chickening out and if I'd seen the guy on Wednesday
evening, I'd've told him not to worry!

I think in Glenn Shutts' paper (think it might be an internal Met Office paper) on the storm about a "successful fine mesh forecast" (here fine mesh was 50km!) there was talk about a 5-day run being absolutely bang on - so this seems to tally with it !

Richard

In message , N_Cook
writes
Reviewing last night's plots, the next time I'll look at the necking in
the near real-time geopotential plots and minimum of the (don't know
what the term is) dam-km product , for the minimum value

A lot of interesting stuff on this paper, about the meteorology and how
the French (in English) handled the 1987 Great Felling

15–16 October 1987 - American Meteorological Society
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/...)004%3C0517:PO
AESO%3E2.0.CO%3B2

(hyphen break)

"... Forecasts issued by DMN gave very strong and repeated warnings to
the media, security agencies, and specialized users.
...
Three to 4 days prior to the event, (French) forecasts mentioned the
possibility of a severe storm. ..."

but if the numerical model outputs had been slavishly observed, those
warnings could have neen rescinded.


Isn't it also the case that the Met Office forecasts were expecting the
strongest winds to be over northern France, so that there's not
necessarily any significant difference between what the French and the
British forecasters were expecting.
--
John Hall
"Three o'clock is always too late or too early
for anything you want to do."
Jean-Paul Sartre (1905-1980)

On 05/10/2017 12:32, Richard Dixon wrote:
On Thursday, 5 October 2017 12:21:56 UTC+1, Graham P Davis wrote:

Met Office computer forecast was also going for storms on the Sunday.
When someone asked me in the pub on Monday evening what the weather
would be like on on Friday at Wentworth - he was going to the golf
tournament - I warned him that there'd be storm force winds. In each
successive run of the computer forecast during the week, it looked as
though it was chickening out and if I'd seen the guy on Wednesday
evening, I'd've told him not to worry!

I think in Glenn Shutts' paper (think it might be an internal Met Office paper) on the storm about a "successful fine mesh forecast" (here fine mesh was 50km!) there was talk about a 5-day run being absolutely bang on - so this seems to tally with it !

Richard

I have a copy of the official report (unfortunately I can see neither a
MO number nor an author. There is a letter from one Norman Lynagh sent
to the Independent, which actually defended the Met Office from the
opprobrium heaped on it by the tabloids. One thing that came out of the
storm was the Met Office Press Office and I benefited by being the first
full time press officer (before me as a manager and a part time Press
and Public Officer.

The report is very matter of fact and doesn't try and obfuscate the
facts, in keeping with the scientific organisation the Met Office was in
those days. Not sure it would be the same today though.

Metman2012 wrote:

On 05/10/2017 12:32, Richard Dixon wrote:
On Thursday, 5 October 2017 12:21:56 UTC+1, Graham P Davis wrote:

Met Office computer forecast was also going for storms on the Sunday.
When someone asked me in the pub on Monday evening what the weather
would be like on on Friday at Wentworth - he was going to the golf
tournament - I warned him that there'd be storm force winds. In each
successive run of the computer forecast during the week, it looked as
though it was chickening out and if I'd seen the guy on Wednesday
evening, I'd've told him not to worry!

I think in Glenn Shutts' paper (think it might be an internal Met Office
paper) on the storm about a "successful fine mesh forecast" (here fine mesh
was 50km!) there was talk about a 5-day run being absolutely bang on - so
this seems to tally with it !

Richard

I have a copy of the official report (unfortunately I can see neither a MO
number nor an author. There is a letter from one Norman Lynagh sent to the
Independent, which actually defended the Met Office from the opprobrium
heaped on it by the tabloids. One thing that came out of the storm was the
Met Office Press Office and I benefited by being the first full time press
officer (before me as a manager and a part time Press and Public Officer.

I remember writing that letter. I got a telephone call from someone at The
Independent who was wanting to write a piece slamming the Met Office for
incompetence. I said it wasn't quite like that and we ended up having a very
sensible conversation. The upshot was that I was invited to write a letter
expressing my opinions, which I did.

On the evening of the day following the overnight mayhem ITV did a live
programme on the storm lasting 30 or 60 minutes (can't remember which). It was
fronted by Trevor Phillips who has gone on to greater things since then. To
enhance the live 'feel' it was all done amongst the journalists in the ITV
newsroom with hand-held cameras. Nothing was prepared in advance so it really
was 'seat of the pants' stuff. Sat on the corner of a journalist's desk, I was
interviewed by Trevor Phillips. He asked me a whole series of leading questions
with the obvious intention that I should lambast the Met Office. I would have
none of it and gave what I think were reasoned responses. I don't think ITV
were too happy about it. They had seen it as an opportunity to have a go at one
of the bastions of the Establishment.

Happy memories!


--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
https://peakdistrictweather.org
Twitter: @TideswellWeathr

On Thursday, October 5, 2017 at 5:07:37 PM UTC+1, John Hall wrote:
In message , N_Cook
writes
Reviewing last night's plots, the next time I'll look at the necking in
the near real-time geopotential plots and minimum of the (don't know
what the term is) dam-km product , for the minimum value

A lot of interesting stuff on this paper, about the meteorology and how
the French (in English) handled the 1987 Great Felling

15–16 October 1987 - American Meteorological Society
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/...)004%3C0517:PO
AESO%3E2.0.CO%3B2

(hyphen break)

"... Forecasts issued by DMN gave very strong and repeated warnings to
the media, security agencies, and specialized users.
...
Three to 4 days prior to the event, (French) forecasts mentioned the
possibility of a severe storm. ..."

but if the numerical model outputs had been slavishly observed, those
warnings could have neen rescinded.


Isn't it also the case that the Met Office forecasts were expecting the
strongest winds to be over northern France, so that there's not
necessarily any significant difference between what the French and the
British forecasters were expecting.
--
The interview with Jack Scott on Thames News says as much about the storm force winds staying across the Channel. I think Michael Fish has said the same in interviews over the years.

My daughter was born on the night of the 16 th Oct 1987 at St James hospital Leeds, it was a very windy night but not exceptional in Leeds, but I did listen to all the news reports coming in . I mentioned Michael Fish in my father of the bride speech on 10 th September 2017, By chance at the Grande hotel Brighton . Along the coast where some of the highest gusts were measured.
The wedding was exciting also as we had to evacuate the hotel due to a bomb threat, and continue next door in the Hilton. Didn’t help that the TUC conference was on next door.
Happy days.

On 02/10/2017 20:51, Scott W wrote:
I've written a few lines on October 1987. Similar to my account of the January 1987 cold spell would anyone be interested in adding their account of that night to this blog?

http://wp.me/p2VSmb-2no


I've just seen what GEM met model is predicting for 15-16 Oct 2017. Same
track of the low across Biscay. All too far off and a definite outlier
of the main 5 global met models though.

On 07/10/2017 08:48, N_Cook wrote:
On 02/10/2017 20:51, Scott W wrote:
I've written a few lines on October 1987. Similar to my account of the
January 1987 cold spell would anyone be interested in adding their
account of that night to this blog?

http://wp.me/p2VSmb-2no


I've just seen what GEM met model is predicting for 15-16 Oct 2017. Same
track of the low across Biscay. All too far off and a definite outlier
of the main 5 global met models though.

I've only just seen the latest NHC Atlantic TD output (Nate + another)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2
, explains the otherwise "errant" GEM manifestation of a compact
mid-atlantic low on the UK scene for 15-16 oct

On 07/10/2017 08:48, N_Cook wrote:
On 02/10/2017 20:51, Scott W wrote:
I've written a few lines on October 1987. Similar to my account of the
January 1987 cold spell would anyone be interested in adding their
account of that night to this blog?

http://wp.me/p2VSmb-2no


I've just seen what GEM met model is predicting for 15-16 Oct 2017. Same
track of the low across Biscay. All too far off and a definite outlier
of the main 5 global met models though.

Looks like an interesting 30th birthday, for the 1987 Great Storm of
15/16 Oct, with TS/TD Ophelia taking the role , along the same track,
where's Michael Fish when you need him.
All the global met models agree she will at least get to Portugal.
This is the latest National Huricane Centre assessment


000
WTNT42 KNHC 100252
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 PM AST Mon Oct 09 2017

Ophelia's center is just south of a broad curved band of deep
convection. At synoptic time, the subjective Dvorak
classifications from TAFB and SAB were both at 2.5, or 35 kt, while
the CIMSS SATCON was at 43 kt. Given the increasingly curved
structure of the bands during the last couple of hours, the initial
intensity is set at 45 kt, a bit higher than the previous advisory.

While the tropical storm is fighting some moderate vertical shear
currently, the global models suggest that this should lighten some
between now and about day 4 as Ophelia resides between the
mid-latitude and subtropical westerlies. Even though the system
will be traversing cool 26C SSTs, upper-tropospheric temperatures
likely will also be cool, allowing for deep convection to continue.
The mid-level moisture analyzed in the SHIPS guidance appears to be
somewhat dry, though the total precipitable water imagery shows
distinct moistening near the system during the last couple of days.
The official intensity forecast shows gradual intensification
through day 3, then slow weakening thereafter. This is close to a
blend of the LGEM statistical guidance and the HWRF dynamical model
and is slightly above that of the previous advisory.

The initial position has fairly small uncertainty as the
low-level center is along the southern edge of the deep
convection, as seen in the GOES-16 shortwave infrared imagery.
Ophelia is moving toward the northeast at about 6 kt - somewhat
unexpectedly - this evening. Despite this, the model guidance
suggests that a ridge will soon build in strongly north of Ophelia
and force the tropical storm to the southeast and then south
during the next couple of days. Around day 3, Ophelia should get
kicked out toward the east-northeast by an approaching trough in the
mid-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast is north of
the previous forecast in the short term and east-northeast in the
long term, and is in between the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach
(HCCA) and the previous forecast.

The initial tropical-storm-force wind radii was adjusted outward
based upon a 2137Z AMSU size analysis. The official size forecast
is based upon the RVCN consensus technique.