It's all starting to happen! At Buoy 62095 (52.8°N 15.6°W) the pressure
at 1300z was 1003.9 mb. That's a fall of 7.9 mb in the past 3 hours and
a fall of 4.0 mb in the past hour. The wind has backed to SSW Force 6.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
https://peakdistrictweather.org
Twitter: @TideswellWeathr

On 17/01/2018 13:36, Norman Lynagh wrote:
It's all starting to happen! At Buoy 62095 (52.8°N 15.6°W) the pressure
at 1300z was 1003.9 mb. That's a fall of 7.9 mb in the past 3 hours and
a fall of 4.0 mb in the past hour. The wind has backed to SSW Force 6.


At least GFS, in the last day or so of cogitations on no-name storm, has
knocked back its UK air-space "storm motion" from over 90mph to a bit less .
Shifting the 90mph priviledge to Holland, well the 06Z run anyway.

N_Cook wrote:

On 17/01/2018 13:36, Norman Lynagh wrote:
It's all starting to happen! At Buoy 62095 (52.8°N 15.6°W) the
pressure at 1300z was 1003.9 mb. That's a fall of 7.9 mb in the
past 3 hours and a fall of 4.0 mb in the past hour. The wind has
backed to SSW Force 6.


At least GFS, in the last day or so of cogitations on no-name storm,
has knocked back its UK air-space "storm motion" from over 90mph to a
bit less . Shifting the 90mph priviledge to Holland, well the 06Z
run anyway.

At 1400z the pressure at Buoy 62095 was 999.3 mb. That was a fall of
11.0 mb in 3 hours and 4.6 mb in 1 hour. Either the system is moving
very fast or deepening rapidly or, more likely, a bit of both.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
https://peakdistrictweather.org
Twitter: @TideswellWeathr

"Norman Lynagh" wrote in message
...
N_Cook wrote:

On 17/01/2018 13:36, Norman Lynagh wrote:
It's all starting to happen! At Buoy 62095 (52.8°N 15.6°W) the
pressure at 1300z was 1003.9 mb. That's a fall of 7.9 mb in the
past 3 hours and a fall of 4.0 mb in the past hour. The wind has
backed to SSW Force 6.


At least GFS, in the last day or so of cogitations on no-name storm,
has knocked back its UK air-space "storm motion" from over 90mph to a
bit less . Shifting the 90mph priviledge to Holland, well the 06Z
run anyway.

At 1400z the pressure at Buoy 62095 was 999.3 mb. That was a fall of
11.0 mb in 3 hours and 4.6 mb in 1 hour. Either the system is moving
very fast or deepening rapidly or, more likely, a bit of both.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
https://peakdistrictweather.org
Twitter: @TideswellWeathr

Its an interesting and fairly extreme example of an almost pure baroclinic
wave embedded in a strong flow. The driving upper trough is very weak
initially, and does not start to develop until after 06z tomorrow. The
deepening of the surface low before that time is due to the tropospheric
thermal wave advecting beneath the strong upper flow towards lower contours.
500 hpa heights over the low centre are, in 12 hour steps starting at 1200
today, 540, 532, 526, 520, and 518.

--
Bernard Burton

Satellite images and weather data for Wokingham at:
www.woksat.info/wwp.html



---
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On Wednesday, January 17, 2018 at 3:11:29 PM UTC, Norman Lynagh wrote:
N_Cook wrote:

On 17/01/2018 13:36, Norman Lynagh wrote:
It's all starting to happen! At Buoy 62095 (52.8°N 15.6°W) the
pressure at 1300z was 1003.9 mb. That's a fall of 7.9 mb in the
past 3 hours and a fall of 4.0 mb in the past hour. The wind has
backed to SSW Force 6.


At least GFS, in the last day or so of cogitations on no-name storm,
has knocked back its UK air-space "storm motion" from over 90mph to a
bit less . Shifting the 90mph priviledge to Holland, well the 06Z
run anyway.

At 1400z the pressure at Buoy 62095 was 999.3 mb. That was a fall of
11.0 mb in 3 hours and 4.6 mb in 1 hour. Either the system is moving
very fast or deepening rapidly or, more likely, a bit of both.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
https://peakdistrictweather.org
Twitter: @TideswellWeathr

But the yellow wind warning has been dropped for my area.
Even though there is a forecast of 36 knots gusting to 48 knots.
Funny I thought.

Len
Wembury, SW Devon

On Wednesday, January 17, 2018 at 3:11:29 PM UTC, Norman Lynagh wrote:
N_Cook wrote:

On 17/01/2018 13:36, Norman Lynagh wrote:
It's all starting to happen! At Buoy 62095 (52.8°N 15.6°W) the
pressure at 1300z was 1003.9 mb. That's a fall of 7.9 mb in the
past 3 hours and a fall of 4.0 mb in the past hour. The wind has
backed to SSW Force 6.


At least GFS, in the last day or so of cogitations on no-name storm,
has knocked back its UK air-space "storm motion" from over 90mph to a
bit less . Shifting the 90mph priviledge to Holland, well the 06Z
run anyway.

At 1400z the pressure at Buoy 62095 was 999.3 mb. That was a fall of
11.0 mb in 3 hours and 4.6 mb in 1 hour. Either the system is moving
very fast or deepening rapidly or, more likely, a bit of both.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
https://peakdistrictweather.org
Twitter: @TideswellWeathr

I think the models did rather well to spot the development so far ahead.

It seems to be heading directly towards you!

Graham
Penzance

On Wednesday, January 17, 2018 at 4:03:15 PM UTC, Len Wood wrote:
On Wednesday, January 17, 2018 at 3:11:29 PM UTC, Norman Lynagh wrote:
N_Cook wrote:

On 17/01/2018 13:36, Norman Lynagh wrote:
It's all starting to happen! At Buoy 62095 (52.8°N 15.6°W) the
pressure at 1300z was 1003.9 mb. That's a fall of 7.9 mb in the
past 3 hours and a fall of 4.0 mb in the past hour. The wind has
backed to SSW Force 6.


At least GFS, in the last day or so of cogitations on no-name storm,
has knocked back its UK air-space "storm motion" from over 90mph to a
bit less . Shifting the 90mph priviledge to Holland, well the 06Z
run anyway.

At 1400z the pressure at Buoy 62095 was 999.3 mb. That was a fall of
11.0 mb in 3 hours and 4.6 mb in 1 hour. Either the system is moving
very fast or deepening rapidly or, more likely, a bit of both.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
https://peakdistrictweather.org
Twitter: @TideswellWeathr

But the yellow wind warning has been dropped for my area.
Even though there is a forecast of 36 knots gusting to 48 knots.
Funny I thought.

Len
Wembury, SW Devon

Yes, I noticed, mind you the current forecast winds are are lot less (at least for here) than we had yesterday, when there was no hint of a warning.

The current 5 day forecast for Penzance for Saturday is a 50% chance of rain virtually all day. The text reads "Winds will ease on Saturday with plenty of sunshine" At least you get a choice!

You must let me know next time you're down this way.

Graham
Penzance

Since the buoy entered the warm sector at 1400Z, and was still in it at 1500Z, the change in pressure during that hour, 2.0mb, should be the current deepening rate of the low. This appears to be slightly greater than the early frames on the 0600Z run of the Met Office EURO 4 model.

Dick Lovett.

Graham Easterling wrote:

On Wednesday, January 17, 2018 at 3:11:29 PM UTC, Norman Lynagh wrote:
N_Cook wrote:

On 17/01/2018 13:36, Norman Lynagh wrote:
It's all starting to happen! At Buoy 62095 (52.8°N 15.6°W) the
pressure at 1300z was 1003.9 mb. That's a fall of 7.9 mb in the
past 3 hours and a fall of 4.0 mb in the past hour. The wind has
backed to SSW Force 6.


At least GFS, in the last day or so of cogitations on no-name
storm, has knocked back its UK air-space "storm motion" from over
90mph to a bit less . Shifting the 90mph priviledge to Holland,
well the 06Z run anyway.

At 1400z the pressure at Buoy 62095 was 999.3 mb. That was a fall of
11.0 mb in 3 hours and 4.6 mb in 1 hour. Either the system is moving
very fast or deepening rapidly or, more likely, a bit of both.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
https://peakdistrictweather.org
Twitter: @TideswellWeathr

I think the models did rather well to spot the development so far
ahead.

It seems to be heading directly towards you!

Graham
Penzance

I think it'll be a very difficult night on the higher roads. The
current temp in Tideswell is +2.4° but higher up it's closer to zero.
At Hilltop, near Flash, for example, the AWS is currently showing
+1.1°. That's at an altitude of 490 metres. The precipitation
associated with the wave has already streamed all the way across
Ireland and it's now breaking out in western Wales. It might be a
sit-up-late night watching this one evolve.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
https://peakdistrictweather.org
Twitter: @TideswellWeathr

On 17/01/2018 13:36, Norman Lynagh wrote:
It's all starting to happen! At Buoy 62095 (52.8°N 15.6°W) the pressure
at 1300z was 1003.9 mb. That's a fall of 7.9 mb in the past 3 hours and
a fall of 4.0 mb in the past hour. The wind has backed to SSW Force 6.


Never named storm Georgina , but how often do you get Violent Storm
force 11 in sea area Thames
Shipping Forecast, Issued 18 January 05:05 UTC
"... Thames
Gale Warning: Gale warning issued 17 January 09:58 UTC

Severe gale force 9 decreasing gale force 8 imminent, backing
southwesterly violent storm force 11 later ..."