GISS data for May shows it to have been the 4th warmest on record at
0.82C above the 1951-80 normal. Previous highest was 2016 at +0.91C.

Of the 12-month averages for June to May, this latest period was in 3rd
place after 2016 and 2017.

The graph of this data can be found at:
http://www.scarlet-jade.com/science/...e-change/#data

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
"There is nothing more frustrating than playing hide and seek with a
deaf wolf." [Benton Fraser]
OS: Linux [openSUSE Tumbleweed]

The graph of this data can be found at:
http://www.scarlet-jade.com/science/...e-change/#data


Graham,

Eyeballing your graph,
http://www.scarlet-jade.com/wp-conte...to-2018_05.png
it seems that the 11 year running mean has been rising steadily from ~0.4 in 1970 to ~1.0 in 2010. That is an increase of 0.15 per decade. To get to an increase of 1.5 K will take about 30 years bringing us to 2040.

The Guardian is reporting that a "Leaked UN draft report warns of urgent need to cut global warming":
https://www.theguardian.com/environm...global-warming
It says "Human-induced warming would exceed 1.5C by about 2040 if emissions continued at their present rate ..."

Cheers, Alastair.

In article ,
says...
~0.4 in 1970 to ~1.0 in 2010. That is an increase of 0.15 per decade. To get to an increase of 1.5 K will take about 30 years


My maths must be off. I make it about 60 years.

--
Alan LeHun

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On Monday, 25 June 2018 09:23:45 UTC+1, Alan LeHun wrote:
In article ,
~0.4 in 1970 to ~1.0 in 2010. That is an increase of 0.15 per decade. To get to an increase of 1.5 K will take about 30 years


My maths must be off. I make it about 60 years.

--
Alan LeHun

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Temperatures had already risen by 1 K in 2010, so it only needs an additional 0.5 to reach the IPCC's first target of less than 1.5 K. 30 years at 0.15 K per decade gives +0.45 K giving a total rise by 2040 of 1.45 K, near enough to 1.5 K.

On 25/06/18 09:23, Alan LeHun wrote:
In article ,
says...
~0.4 in 1970 to ~1.0 in 2010. That is an increase of 0.15 per decade. To get to an increase of 1.5 K will take about 30 years


My maths must be off. I make it about 60 years.


If you look at the graph in the following section, you'll see the
extrapolated curve reaches near +1.7C by 2040. As this anomaly is based
on my own estimate of the mean temperature for the pre-industrial era
rather than the rather dubious Met Office figure, that equates to +1.5C
using their baseline.
http://www.scarlet-jade.com/science/...ange/#analysis

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
"There is nothing more frustrating than playing hide and seek with a
deaf wolf." [Benton Fraser]
OS: Linux [openSUSE Tumbleweed]

On Monday, 25 June 2018 10:42:03 UTC+1, Graham P Davis wrote:

If you look at the graph in the following section, you'll see the
extrapolated curve reaches near +1.7C by 2040. As this anomaly is based
on my own estimate of the mean temperature for the pre-industrial era
rather than the rather dubious Met Office figure, that equates to +1.5C
using their baseline.
http://www.scarlet-jade.com/science/...ange/#analysis

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
"There is nothing more frustrating than playing hide and seek with a
deaf wolf." [Benton Fraser]
OS: Linux [openSUSE Tumbleweed]

Graham,

What is the Met Office/IPCC base line?

Is it described anywhere?

Cheers, Alastair.

On 25/06/18 11:31, Alastair wrote:
On Monday, 25 June 2018 10:42:03 UTC+1, Graham P Davis wrote:

If you look at the graph in the following section, you'll see the
extrapolated curve reaches near +1.7C by 2040. As this anomaly is based
on my own estimate of the mean temperature for the pre-industrial era
rather than the rather dubious Met Office figure, that equates to +1.5C
using their baseline.
http://www.scarlet-jade.com/science/...ange/#analysis


Graham,

What is the Met Office/IPCC base line?

Is it described anywhere?

Cheers, Alastair.


They use 1850-1900 as that's the earliest period for which they have
data but that's after the start of the industrial era so would have
already experienced warming from increased CO2.

In 1850, CO2 was about 285 and rose to 296 by 1900. So the Met Office /
IPCC pre-industrial period had CO2 levels 5-16ppm above the level
accepted as being representative of the pre-industrial era (280ppm).

I've described my reasons for not using the Met Office / IPCC baseline
in the "latest data" section below the above link. I probably should
have placed it in the previous section.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
"There is nothing more frustrating than playing hide and seek with a
deaf wolf." [Benton Fraser]
OS: Linux [openSUSE Tumbleweed]