On Sunday, June 24, 2018 at 1:27:38 PM UTC+1, Graham Easterling wrote:

I was on Scilly in July 1989 and I believe they were starting to import
water during that hot summer. There were notices everywhere begging the
tourist to restrict water use. The islands were super parched.


Photo here from July 1989, taken from Skybus. It's looking across from near Lands End to Sennen & Gwenver. Everything was brown. One of the driest summers ever in this part of the UK.

I actually took it for the cliff top fog. In retrospect it's a good image of the drought.

Graham
Penzance

Sorry, forgot the link! http://www.turnstone-cottage.co.uk/Dry.html

Graham

Nick Gardner wrote:

On 22/06/2018 17:23, Graham Easterling wrote:
It used to be a major issue on Scilly. It got to the state where 1
year they had to import water from Penzance on the Scillonian III.

They've now got a desalination plant, the output of which they mix
roughly 50/50 with the ground water supply.

Is the desalinated water fit for drinking?

I was on Scilly in July 1989 and I believe they were starting to
import water during that hot summer. There were notices everywhere
begging the tourist to restrict water use. The islands were super
parched.

One of the mornings I was there, the people of St Mary (plus tourists
like myself) awoke with the biggest hangover in history. They'd just
celebrated the Gentry Eagle winning the Virgin Atlantic Challenge
Trophy. The boat was in the habour and we all got to have a little
trip in it. Richard Branson put on a big party and why would you
refuse free booze. I was only a t'young lad.


I did the weather forecasting for that trip and for the same boat's
attempt the previous year. For the 1988 attempt I was based in
Greenwich, Connecticut. We waited a month for even a hint of a weather
window. I had a number of trips on the boat during that month. Quite
exhilerating thrashing along Long Island Sound at 60 knots! They
eventually decided to make the attempt in very marginal weather but the
boat began to suffer in the relatively rough seas and they packed it in
about halfway across. For the successful 1989 attempt I was able to
route them along the axis of an elongated ridge of high pressure for
most of the way across. They had a trouble-free crossing and and beat
Richard Branson's record easily.

Unfortunately, Tom Gentry had a serious accident in a powerboat race in
1994. He wasn't breathing when he was pulled from the water and was
kept alive for several years in a vegetative state. He never recovered
and died in 1998.

There's a video about the Gentry Eagle at

https://youtu.be/O-c5CuQTKbI

It brings back lots of happy memories for me!


--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
https://peakdistrictweather.org
Twitter: @TideswellWeathr

On Friday, June 22, 2018 at 11:03:30 AM UTC+1, wrote:
Has it all be diverted north due to the jet stream or are there just fewer
and/or weaker weather fronts forming in the atlantic this year? I notice when
has front has crossed us in the last month or so its been a pretty feeble
affair.

I have been wondering the same. No proper rain in Horsham since April. This is following months of dull damp weather from August last year to April with hardly any anticyclonic conditions. I don't get why the weather these days seems to get stuck in a rut so often.

On 25/06/2018 12:44, wrote:
On Friday, June 22, 2018 at 11:03:30 AM UTC+1, wrote:
Has it all be diverted north due to the jet stream or are there just fewer
and/or weaker weather fronts forming in the atlantic this year? I notice when
has front has crossed us in the last month or so its been a pretty feeble
affair.

I have been wondering the same. No proper rain in Horsham since April. This is following months of dull damp weather from August last year to April with hardly any anticyclonic conditions. I don't get why the weather these days seems to get stuck in a rut so often.


A lot of maths on a planet-scale in this
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/20...00110.full.pdf
but basically , The Rockies and/or the Himalayas can force the northern
jetstream into a quasi-resonant, self sustaining sinusoidal structure,
following its own tail, for a time.
Seems plausible
To which everything else is locked/blocked into

On Mon, 25 Jun 2018 14:17:53 +0100
N_Cook wrote:
On 25/06/2018 12:44, wrote:
On Friday, June 22, 2018 at 11:03:30 AM UTC+1, wrote:
Has it all be diverted north due to the jet stream or are there just fewer
and/or weaker weather fronts forming in the atlantic this year? I notice
when
has front has crossed us in the last month or so its been a pretty feeble
affair.

I have been wondering the same. No proper rain in Horsham since April. This
is following months of dull damp weather from August last year to April with
hardly any anticyclonic conditions. I don't get why the weather these days
seems to get stuck in a rut so often.


A lot of maths on a planet-scale in this
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/20...00110.full.pdf
but basically , The Rockies and/or the Himalayas can force the northern
jetstream into a quasi-resonant, self sustaining sinusoidal structure,
following its own tail, for a time.

Is that something enhanced by climate change or something that happens from
time to time anyway? It does seem to be happening more often from my rather
short time frame.

On Monday, 25 June 2018 15:36:50 UTC+1, wrote:
On Mon, 25 Jun 2018 14:17:53 +0100
N_Cook wrote:
On 25/06/2018 12:44, wrote:
On Friday, June 22, 2018 at 11:03:30 AM UTC+1, wrote:
Has it all be diverted north due to the jet stream or are there just fewer
and/or weaker weather fronts forming in the atlantic this year? I notice
when
has front has crossed us in the last month or so its been a pretty feeble
affair.

I have been wondering the same. No proper rain in Horsham since April. This
is following months of dull damp weather from August last year to April with
hardly any anticyclonic conditions. I don't get why the weather these days
seems to get stuck in a rut so often.


A lot of maths on a planet-scale in this
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/20...00110.full.pdf
but basically , The Rockies and/or the Himalayas can force the northern
jetstream into a quasi-resonant, self sustaining sinusoidal structure,
following its own tail, for a time.

Is that something enhanced by climate change or something that happens from
time to time anyway? It does seem to be happening more often from my rather
short time frame.
I'm going to stick my neck out and say that it has next to nothing to do with climate change - just the current state of play. Winter (and Summer) of 1947, the summer of 1959 and the winter of 1963 are all examples of when the planetary flow got stuck in a configuration in western Europe - and they all predate the concept of global warming and climate change to some degree. Maybe the temperatures we are experiencing today area degree warmer than maybe they would've been back then with all other things equal - but that's insignificant. If you want to see a definitive effect of climate change then you need to look elsewhere - maybe somewhere like Svalbard.

--
Freddie
Ystrad
Rhondda
148m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
https://twitter.com/YstradRhonddaWx for hourly reports (no wind measurement currently)

On Monday, 25 June 2018 16:24:37 UTC+1, Freddie wrote:
On Monday, 25 June 2018 15:36:50 UTC+1, wrote:
On Mon, 25 Jun 2018 14:17:53 +0100
N_Cook wrote:
On 25/06/2018 12:44, wrote:
On Friday, June 22, 2018 at 11:03:30 AM UTC+1, wrote:
Has it all be diverted north due to the jet stream or are there just fewer
and/or weaker weather fronts forming in the atlantic this year? I notice
when
has front has crossed us in the last month or so its been a pretty feeble
affair.

I have been wondering the same. No proper rain in Horsham since April. This
is following months of dull damp weather from August last year to April with
hardly any anticyclonic conditions. I don't get why the weather these days
seems to get stuck in a rut so often.


A lot of maths on a planet-scale in this
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/20...00110.full.pdf
but basically , The Rockies and/or the Himalayas can force the northern
jetstream into a quasi-resonant, self sustaining sinusoidal structure,
following its own tail, for a time.

Is that something enhanced by climate change or something that happens from
time to time anyway? It does seem to be happening more often from my rather
short time frame.
I'm going to stick my neck out and say that it has next to nothing to do with climate change - just the current state of play. Winter (and Summer) of 1947, the summer of 1959 and the winter of 1963 are all examples of when the planetary flow got stuck in a configuration in western Europe - and they all predate the concept of global warming and climate change to some degree. Maybe the temperatures we are experiencing today area degree warmer than maybe they would've been back then with all other things equal - but that's insignificant. If you want to see a definitive effect of climate change then you need to look elsewhere - maybe somewhere like Svalbard.

--
Freddie
Ystrad
Rhondda
148m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
https://twitter.com/YstradRhonddaWx for hourly reports (no wind measurement currently)

You are saying in effect that the frequency of blocking should not be significantly affected by overall warming and I can't really argue with that. The position of a block is crucial. The highly anomalous (and awful) summer of 1968 is an example of a block in the "wrong" place at least for those in the south and would be better connected to global cooling rather than warming but I suspect was nothing to do with either.

Tudor Hughes

My halfpennyworth.
I have an increasing amount of faith in the reasoning and implications
in this paper

https://www.researchgate.net/profile...tal-Storms.pdf


3 elements of NOAA SST anomaly gradients over the North Atlantic
correlating with storms for the UK.
My enumeration of it, came back to life for Storm Hector and has now
dropped back again.
For the current month prognostications , roughly the SST anomaly
gradient along the 50th parallel.
Just sampling every 10 days or so (NOAA output only Mon and Thur anyway)
from the present backwards, looking only at the Norwegan Sea part of the
very North Atlantic. I've gone back to October 2017 and nothing but
"yellow and orange" + territory on these outputs

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

If the eastern end SST +anomaly of the 50th is an attractor for UK
storms (relative to the Grand Banks) then the storms could be attracted
north of the UK, if this mechanism was valid more widely.
Obviously its a gradient required for this and I've ignored (for this
first pass) the situation at the Grand Banks which has been a lot more
variable over those months , but perhaps warrants further study.

Perhaps there is something in this Norwegan Sea SST anomaly stuff as
well as the UK waters attractor (if +).
NOAA is giving at least the southern part of that Sea , deeper "blue".
Conjecture from that is, what lows coming across the Atlantic are more
likely to go more for the UK, unless UK waters go a deeper "blue" of course.
GFS has decided some lows of 01-02 and 07 July will have enough oomph to
barge into the Azores High, consistent with that?

On 26/06/2018 08:23, N_Cook wrote:

My halfpennyworth.
I have an increasing amount of faith in the reasoning and implications
in this paper

https://www.researchgate.net/profile...tal-Storms.pdf



3 elements of NOAA SST anomaly gradients over the North Atlantic
correlating with storms for the UK.
My enumeration of it, came back to life for Storm Hector and has now
dropped back again.
For the current month prognostications , roughly the SST anomaly
gradient along the 50th parallel.
Just sampling every 10 days or so (NOAA output only Mon and Thur anyway)
from the present backwards, looking only at the Norwegan Sea part of the
very North Atlantic. I've gone back to October 2017 and nothing but
"yellow and orange" + territory on these outputs

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

If the eastern end SST +anomaly of the 50th is an attractor for UK
storms (relative to the Grand Banks) then the storms could be attracted
north of the UK, if this mechanism was valid more widely.
Obviously its a gradient required for this and I've ignored (for this
first pass) the situation at the Grand Banks which has been a lot more
variable over those months , but perhaps warrants further study.

Perhaps there is something in this Norwegan Sea SST anomaly stuff as
well as the UK waters attractor (if +).
NOAA is giving at least the southern part of that Sea , deeper "blue".
Conjecture from that is, what lows coming across the Atlantic are more
likely to go more for the UK, unless UK waters go a deeper "blue" of
course.
GFS has decided some lows of 01-02 and 07 July will have enough oomph to
barge into the Azores High, consistent with that?

Returning to my 3-component enumeration of that paper's implication for
UK storminess pointer , for the next week or so.
The number went up again , for yesterday's NOAA SST output.
11 Jun, 57 ( Storm Hector 13-14 June 2018)
14 Jun , 60
18 Jun, 65
21 Jun, 42
25 Jun, 52

On Monday, June 25, 2018 at 4:24:37 PM UTC+1, Freddie wrote:
On Monday, 25 June 2018 15:36:50 UTC+1, wrote:
On Mon, 25 Jun 2018 14:17:53 +0100
N_Cook wrote:
On 25/06/2018 12:44, wrote:
On Friday, June 22, 2018 at 11:03:30 AM UTC+1, wrote:
Has it all be diverted north due to the jet stream or are there just fewer
and/or weaker weather fronts forming in the atlantic this year? I notice
when
has front has crossed us in the last month or so its been a pretty feeble
affair.

I have been wondering the same. No proper rain in Horsham since April. This
is following months of dull damp weather from August last year to April with
hardly any anticyclonic conditions. I don't get why the weather these days
seems to get stuck in a rut so often.


A lot of maths on a planet-scale in this
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/20...00110.full.pdf
but basically , The Rockies and/or the Himalayas can force the northern
jetstream into a quasi-resonant, self sustaining sinusoidal structure,
following its own tail, for a time.

Is that something enhanced by climate change or something that happens from
time to time anyway? It does seem to be happening more often from my rather
short time frame.
I'm going to stick my neck out and say that it has next to nothing to do with climate change - just the current state of play. Winter (and Summer) of 1947, the summer of 1959 and the winter of 1963 are all examples of when the planetary flow got stuck in a configuration in western Europe - and they all predate the concept of global warming and climate change to some degree. Maybe the temperatures we are experiencing today area degree warmer than maybe they would've been back then with all other things equal - but that's insignificant. If you want to see a definitive effect of climate change then you need to look elsewhere - maybe somewhere like Svalbard.

--
Freddie
Ystrad
Rhondda
148m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
https://twitter.com/YstradRhonddaWx for hourly reports (no wind measurement currently)

Rather agree. The trouble is that virtually everything gets blamed on climate change, which is of course a genuine worry for the future.

During the stormy end to the last century, with very high Atlantic fringe gale frequencies, climate change was highlighted as the cause. Always seemed counter intuitive to me. This century, the low gale frequencies (from Cornwall to Shetland) indicate rather more blocking. Probably all part of a broader cycle, largely independent of climate change.

SSTs seem to be rather flavour of the month for affecting our weather. However, as far as I can see, the Atlantic SST anomalies have been broadly similar for a few years now. Yet we have had the nrmal variety of weather types over those years. Changes, such a the high SSTs near the UK now) largely down to recent weather, rather than vica versa.

It's very hard to isolate the changes that are due to climate change, except obvious changes like the reduction in arctic sea ice & the affect on the climate of places like Svalbard.

Very complicated & difficult to predict, the weather, which is rather how I like it.

Graham
Penzance