Here is a summary of the latest NWP output, for noon (GMT) on Sunday. Issued
0551z, 22/10/03.

ECMWF: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif
High pressure lies to the WSW of the UK, with westerlies and NW'lies over
the British Isles. The high moves over France at T+144, with complex low
pressure to the north bringing strong westerlies across the UK. The
westerlies continue at T+168, as the system of lows to the north moves
slowly eastwards. The 10-day chart also shows a zonal flow for the UK.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
The UK is covered by WNW'lies and NW'lies, due to a weak ridge over much of
the British Isles. By T+144 the winds become WSW'lies, with high pressure
over France and the Alps and deep lows to the NW and NE of Iceland.

GFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.gif
A weak ridge covers the UK, with northerlies and NW'lies for most. The ridge
topples over England and Wales at T+120, bringing northerlies there and
WSW'lies elsewhere. 850hPa temperatures range from -3C over East Anglia to
+6C over Northern Ireland. By T+144 a deep low forms to the north of
Iceland, leading to strong westerlies over the UK. The westerlies continue
at T+168 as the low fills and sinks southwards. By day 8 the low fillls over
northern Scotland, with strong WNW'lies and westerlies to the south. The low
then deepens again to the west of southern Norway on day 9, leading to
NW'lies for all. A secondary low moves rapidly SE'wards over Ireland on day
10, with NW'lies for Scotland and SW'lies or southerlies over England and
Wales.

GEM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1201.gif
The UK lies under strong NW'lies, with an Icelandic low and high pressure
extendinging from WSW of the UK to Biscay. The Icelandic low deepens and
moves eastwards at T+120, maintaining the UK under a mild NW'ly flow. 850hPa
temperatures range from +6C over northern Scotland to +10C over much of
England. The winds become strong NNW'lies at T+144 as the low deepens over
southern Sweden.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
The Japanese run shows a ridge over Scotland and Northern Ireland, with
easterlies to the south. 850hPa temperatures vary from -5C over NE Scotland
to freezing over SW England. The ridge sinks southwards at T+144, allowing
WNW'lies to cover Scotland and Northern Ireland. Much of England and Wales
lie under a col at T+168, with westerlies further north.

Model overlay charts (GEM/GFS/JMA):
http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da.../ens/pslv.html
The charts show a mass of spaghetti, reflecting uncertainties about the
positioning of highs. The UK lies under anything from NW'lies to easterlies
depending on the run.

In summary, the runs today are mixed in that they differ with regards to the
positioning of highs and lows. However, the general theme remains one of
milder, mobile conditions setting in during the first half of next week.

In uk.sci.weather on Wed, 22 Oct 2003 at 06:51:20, Darren Prescott wrote
:
Here is a summary of the latest NWP output, for noon (GMT) on Sunday. Issued
0551z, 22/10/03.

In summary, the runs today are mixed in that they differ with regards to the
positioning of highs and lows.

I haven't recorded pressure below 1005mb since 1st July, and only 3
times since Apr 29th.

However, the general theme remains one of
milder, mobile conditions setting in during the first half of next week.

Lets hope so (not for longer than a few weeks though).
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham

Email to pahyett[AT]activist[DOT]demon[DOT]co[DOT]uk

In uk.sci.weather on Thu, 23 Oct 2003 at 07:10:53, Vidcapper wrote :

In summary, the runs today are mixed in that they differ with regards to the
positioning of highs and lows.

I haven't recorded pressure below 1005mb since 1st July, and only 3
times since Apr 29th.

Well, that barrier was certainly smashed! Down to 975mb last night.
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham

Email to pahyett[AT]activist[DOT]demon[DOT]co[DOT]uk

Last night pressure dropped to 971mb in mid hants
..
jrm
On Fri, 31 Oct 2003 08:03:14 +0000, Paul Hyett
wrote:

In uk.sci.weather on Thu, 23 Oct 2003 at 07:10:53, Vidcapper wrote :

In summary, the runs today are mixed in that they differ with regards to the
positioning of highs and lows.

I haven't recorded pressure below 1005mb since 1st July, and only 3
times since Apr 29th.

Well, that barrier was certainly smashed! Down to 975mb last night.