================================================== ===============

This forecast summary is my *PERSONAL OPINION* of how the weather may unfold
next week. I will take no responsibility whatsoever for any actions arising from
its use. It is provided freely in the spirit of freedom and the great love for
meteorology that I personally enjoy and wish to share freely with others.

================================================== ===============


Summary valid for Sunday 28/12/03 to Saturday 03/01/04
TOI (time of issue) Thursday 26/12/03 1830 UK local time This summary is based
on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, FAX, and ENS (NCEP ensemble)
labelled charts available from the superb http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten

Next week looks like seeing a very volatile spell of weather with the UK being
affected by deep areas of low pressure all week. Confidence on this aspect is
high but very low indeed for any detail, so little will be attempted this time.
There is a moderate to high risk of spells of very heavy rain in all areas
accompanied by gales. As deep cold air now lies just to the north of Scotland
there is also a moderate risk of localised heavy snowfalls, possibly closing
roads. These are most likely in northern Britain, near frontal zones and over
high ground above 200m further south. The greatest risk of severe weather is on
Sunday into Monday and during New Years Eve/Day when a particularly deep and
intense low could bring storms and snow to northern Britain. So to summarise, a
potentially stormy and wintry week ahead, especially in northern Britain and
over high ground further south, so if you intend travelling next week, you would
be well advised to keep a close eye on Met Office forecasts on the TV and radio.

Trend for the following week at very low confidence is for unsettled and rather
cold weather to continue.

As always this and previous forecasts are available at
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/weeklydiscussions.htm

This forecast was brought to you from Met. Office Dartmoor.

Finally, I'd like to take this opportunity to wish my numerous readers both on
the web and on the internet newsgroup uk.sci.weather a very happy and prosperous
new Year, whatever the weather !

Wintry cheers,

Will.
--
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

On Fri, 26 Dec 2003 18:26:03 -0000, "Will"
wrote:


Finally, I'd like to take this opportunity to wish my numerous readers both on
the web and on the internet newsgroup uk.sci.weather a very happy and prosperous
new Year, whatever the weather !

And the same to you too Will.

May *I* take this opportunity to thank you for your excellent
contributions to this NG. Your efforts are appreciated by the vast
majority of us. :-)


Phil

On Fri, 26 Dec 2003 20:09:36 GMT, phil wrote:

May *I* take this opportunity to thank you for your excellent
contributions to this NG. Your efforts are appreciated by the vast
majority of us. :-)

Hear, hear.

I'm sure I've said it before but I trust Will's forecast far more than
the ones from the media.

At the very least Will is honest, this coming weeks a case in point,
impossible to predict beyond unsettled/stormy and coldish, so Will
says so. Good for you Will.

--
Cheers
Dave. pam is missing e-mail

Cheers Will, Please keep us updated.
Happy Xmas and new year.
Hiccuupppp.
-------------------------------------------------
"Will" wrote in message
...
================================================== ===============

This forecast summary is my *PERSONAL OPINION* of how the weather may
unfold
next week. I will take no responsibility whatsoever for any actions
arising from
its use. It is provided freely in the spirit of freedom and the great love
for
meteorology that I personally enjoy and wish to share freely with others.

================================================== ===============


Summary valid for Sunday 28/12/03 to Saturday 03/01/04
TOI (time of issue) Thursday 26/12/03 1830 UK local time This summary is
based
on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, FAX, and ENS (NCEP
ensemble)
labelled charts available from the superb
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten

Next week looks like seeing a very volatile spell of weather with the UK
being
affected by deep areas of low pressure all week. Confidence on this aspect
is
high but very low indeed for any detail, so little will be attempted this
time.
There is a moderate to high risk of spells of very heavy rain in all areas
accompanied by gales. As deep cold air now lies just to the north of
Scotland
there is also a moderate risk of localised heavy snowfalls, possibly
closing
roads. These are most likely in northern Britain, near frontal zones and
over
high ground above 200m further south. The greatest risk of severe weather
is on
Sunday into Monday and during New Years Eve/Day when a particularly deep
and
intense low could bring storms and snow to northern Britain. So to
summarise, a
potentially stormy and wintry week ahead, especially in northern Britain
and
over high ground further south, so if you intend travelling next week, you
would
be well advised to keep a close eye on Met Office forecasts on the TV and
radio.

Trend for the following week at very low confidence is for unsettled and
rather
cold weather to continue.

As always this and previous forecasts are available at
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/weeklydiscussions.htm

This forecast was brought to you from Met. Office Dartmoor.

Finally, I'd like to take this opportunity to wish my numerous readers
both on
the web and on the internet newsgroup uk.sci.weather a very happy and
prosperous
new Year, whatever the weather !

Wintry cheers,

Will.
--
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----

"Dave Liquorice" wrote in message
. 1...
On Fri, 26 Dec 2003 20:09:36 GMT, phil wrote:

May *I* take this opportunity to thank you for your excellent
contributions to this NG. Your efforts are appreciated by the vast
majority of us. :-)

Hear, hear.

I'm sure I've said it before but I trust Will's forecast far more than
the ones from the media.

At the very least Will is honest, this coming weeks a case in point,
impossible to predict beyond unsettled/stormy and coldish, so Will
says so. Good for you Will.


And the same from me too, Cheers.

Trev.

In message
"Dave Liquorice" wrote:

On Fri, 26 Dec 2003 20:09:36 GMT, phil wrote:

May *I* take this opportunity to thank you for your excellent
contributions to this NG. Your efforts are appreciated by the vast
majority of us. :-)

Hear, hear.

I'm sure I've said it before but I trust Will's forecast far more than
the ones from the media.

At the very least Will is honest, this coming weeks a case in point,
impossible to predict beyond unsettled/stormy and coldish, so Will
says so. Good for you Will.


However predicting this type of weather for this week probably can be done
pretty reliably for months in advance. Didn't Prof Manley write that the
"post Christmas storm" is the most reliable feature of the British climate?

Martin

--
Created on the Iyonix PC - the new RISC OS computer.

Martin Dixon wrote in message ...
In message
"Dave Liquorice" wrote:

On Fri, 26 Dec 2003 20:09:36 GMT, phil wrote:

May *I* take this opportunity to thank you for your excellent
contributions to this NG. Your efforts are appreciated by the vast
majority of us. :-)

Hear, hear.

I'm sure I've said it before but I trust Will's forecast far more than
the ones from the media.

At the very least Will is honest, this coming weeks a case in point,
impossible to predict beyond unsettled/stormy and coldish, so Will
says so. Good for you Will.


However predicting this type of weather for this week probably can be done
pretty reliably for months in advance. Didn't Prof Manley write that the
"post Christmas storm" is the most reliable feature of the British climate?

Martin

--
Created on the Iyonix PC - the new RISC OS computer.

Hi Martin,

You are correct IIRC. But forecasting very long range can only be done
probabilistically and can be expected to be totally wrong on any specific
occasion depending on the odds ratio.

The point about next week's weather is that the ensembles and detrministic runs
(as Joe Hunt illustrated) have been unusually variable for such relatively short
lead times. Part of the reason is lack of data over the Christmas period and the
highly developmental atmospheric dynamics. The classic "Manley" is a typical
deep Atlantic low forming in a more normal westerly jet and rushing towards UK
or Iceland and to today's NWP that is "bread and butter". Next week's situation
is by no means straightforward or "classic" but there is some convergence now of
a deep low crossing UK NW-SE New Year's Eve - New Year's Day. Exact track is
uncertain but key for who gets snow and who gets wind. Still a chance though
that it won't happen - that's the nature of forecasting !

Cheers,

Will.
--
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In article ,
Martin Dixon writes:
snip
Didn't Prof Manley write that the
"post Christmas storm" is the most reliable feature of the British climate?

I think he did, and that CEP Brooks' work on "singularities" also showed
this. But there must be a possibility that such features will be (or
have already been) modified, either in their usual dates or in their
intensity, by our warming climate.
--
John Hall

You can divide people into two categories:
those who divide people into two categories and those who don't

In message
John Hall wrote:

In article ,
Martin Dixon writes:
snip
Didn't Prof Manley write that the
"post Christmas storm" is the most reliable feature of the British climate?

I think he did, and that CEP Brooks' work on "singularities" also showed
this. But there must be a possibility that such features will be (or
have already been) modified, either in their usual dates or in their
intensity, by our warming climate.

Yes, I'd wondered about that. It would be interesting to look at changes in
the incidence rates and dates of "singularities" over a succession of
suitably long periods (30 years??). "Intensity" might be more difficult to
quantify though.

Martin


--
Created on the Iyonix PC - the new RISC OS computer.

In article ,
Martin Dixon writes:
In message
John Hall wrote:

In article ,
Martin Dixon writes:
snip
Didn't Prof Manley write that the
"post Christmas storm" is the most reliable feature of the British climate?

I think he did, and that CEP Brooks' work on "singularities" also showed
this. But there must be a possibility that such features will be (or
have already been) modified, either in their usual dates or in their
intensity, by our warming climate.

Yes, I'd wondered about that. It would be interesting to look at changes in
the incidence rates and dates of "singularities" over a succession of
suitably long periods (30 years??). "Intensity" might be more difficult to
quantify though.

Perhaps "proportion of years in which it occurred" might be a more
suitable measure than intensity.

IIRC, Brooks looked at a 52 year period, ending in about the 1940s. The
most reliable singularity which he identified occurred in all 52 years.
However the beginning and ending dates seemed to vary so much from year
to year, by as much as three weeks or so IIRC, that I'm not sure how he
could always tell that he was looking at the "correct" singularity. I
suspect that there could have been an element of wishful thinking.
--
John Hall
"Home is heaven and orgies are vile,
But you *need* an orgy, once in a while."
Ogden Nash (1902-1971)