"James Brown" wrote in message
news
will the 528 air have
reached there in time for the convergence? And in any case. the low may
run a little further south anyway.

Hi James,

The 18z GFS takes the low on the same Southerly track it used last night,
the head of a seasoned meteorologist will be able to tell me whether they
feel this is the right track based on experience, I'm fairly reliant on the
models at the moment.

The main issue to me, is the rainfall intensity which the GSF is notoriously
renowned for "over-forecasting". Areas which see any heavy rain will a
better chance of seeing snowfall from this low, at present (looking at the
European ETA) this looks like the very far South coast will see the heaviest
rain, then the Southeast corner as the low moves away, it's this area I'm
concerned with. Perhaps I should let go of a couple of the straws ;-)

A

On Fri, 23 Jan 2004 21:11:13 GMT, "Blizzards" wrote:

what are you going on about

the outlook looks snowy to me,what do you mean winds backing to the
west,what charts are you looking at then

He's right you know, that's exactly what happens down here more often
than not (in unstable Northerlies). In this chart for example:
http://wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack3.gif the Low (Polar Low?) over NW
England, embedded in the northerly airstream, will tend to develop
fronts and perhaps a circulation before it gets to the South Coast and
the winds will back to the West or even SW ahead of it. Dragging
milder air off the Channel for a while, usually just at the time it
*should be* snowing here; I've seen this happen time and time again.

Inland Hampshire may get plenty of snow (if the Low survives that
long) but with sleety wet stuff further South near the coast as milder
air is temporarily pulled in off the Western Channel. Then as the CF
clears, the wind veers NW or N again, turns it back to proper snow...
and it peters out leaving 1 cm of slushy stuff thats largely gone in
half a day.

Only if the Low remains active, passes to our East but close enough
for us to be within the snow band are we likely to get significant
snow near the Central S Coast (say Chichester to Poole). More often
than not it will be too far East and we miss it altogether, or
over/West of us and we get the sleet and a cm of slush. Pah! to
Northerlies, I say... they are usually not *quite* cold enough down
here...

Well thats's what I've observed anyway and explains why I am usually
sceptical about forecasts of disruption from snow on low ground near
here. However, it isn't *impossible*

--
Dave
Fareham Hampshire.

In message , Dave Ludlow
writes
On Fri, 23 Jan 2004 21:11:13 GMT, "Blizzards" wrote:

what are you going on about

the outlook looks snowy to me,what do you mean winds backing to the
west,what charts are you looking at then

He's right you know, that's exactly what happens down here more often
than not (in unstable Northerlies). In this chart for example:
http://wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack3.gif the Low (Polar Low?) over NW
England, embedded in the northerly airstream, will tend to develop
fronts and perhaps a circulation before it gets to the South Coast and
the winds will back to the West or even SW ahead of it. Dragging
milder air off the Channel for a while, usually just at the time it
*should be* snowing here; I've seen this happen time and time again.

Thanks Dave! I must admit that a few miles can make all the difference.
My MIL lives about 30 miles away but a thousand feet higher and she's
already had several days of snow - she might catch something again this
week, but we are in the shadow of the major chain of the Welsh hills,
and northerlies plus warming on the descent = little snow and minimum
frost.

Mind you, in the Summer showers disappear before they get to us, so not
complaining overmuch!

Cheers,
James
--
James Brown

"Victor West" wrote in message
...

"James Brown" wrote in message
...
Looking at the charts I have to agree with Will that it doesn't look
much more a day or so of cold winds.

Where did Will say that?

Victor

Nowhere!
Dave.

What you need to look at the very low total thicknesses. Temps of only a
couple of degrees will shoot the air up like a bubble. 10 degrees sea temps
will never get a chance to warm the air up, they will just make the air more
unstable.

Stan
"James Brown" wrote in message
...
Looking at the charts I have to agree with Will that it doesn't look
much more a day or so of cold winds. The 'clipper' low for Sunday looks
like holding back the advance of the 528 air for S. Wales and the south
of England. Then the N or NNW'lys come across water of 10C. So could be
down to single figures by then, albeit the sun is getting stronger. But
then several models, most notably the GFS develops a more pronounced low
in the North Sea which has the effect of backing the winds into the west
for southern parts - again off 10- 11C water.

It's possible I suppose that by the end of the week the wind my back to
the SE, but will the near continent be that cold by then to affect the
encroaching depressions?

So altogether, not holding out much hope for the south - but as a snow
lover I will be pleasantly surprised if something white does appear!

James
--
James Brown

"Dave Ludlow" wrote in message
...

He's right you know, that's exactly what happens down here more often
than not (in unstable Northerlies). In this chart for example:
http://wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack3.gif the Low (Polar Low?) over NW
England, embedded in the northerly airstream, will tend to develop
fronts and perhaps a circulation before it gets to the South Coast and
the winds will back to the West or even SW ahead of it. Dragging
milder air off the Channel for a while, usually just at the time it
*should be* snowing here; I've seen this happen time and time again.

I like the look of that chart

There hasn't been a decent polar low here since 1996.
They don't last long but can be very intense affairs, dumping
several inches of snow in an hour or two.

I think it was also 1996 (not the polar low) that I was last sent
home from work early. I wonder.........

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk

"James Brown" wrote in message
news
In message , Andrew Bond
writes

Well, I see plenty of low level convergence on Monday as the low runs
into
the Southeast which will just add to the cold air advection from the
North.
Plus the rainfall intensity is very heavy (according to the GFS) which
will
induce a drag effect and with surface temps at around 1-2c it won't take
much to turn it to snow. I'd say the Southeast has a higher chance than
many
might fear.

But it is a bit borderline even there Andrew - will the 528 air have
reached there in time for the convergence? And in any case. the low may
run a little further south anyway.

James, don't rely on the 528 line in frontal situations. Warm air aloft
(i.e. above the frontal surface but below the 500 mbar level) will result
in higher thickness, even though the air below, say the 700 mbar level
is sufficiently cold for snow to reach the ground.

Philip Eden