CLIMATE CHANGE: IT'S WORSE THAN YOU THINK

We have heard a lot about climate change and the need to reduce emissions of
greenhouse gases such as CO2. Although we are told that climate change will
lead to an increase in floods, droughts and hurricanes, many people assume
that the changes will be very slow and, for people living in cold climates,
they could mean some nice warm weather.

BUT THE THREAT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IS MUCH WORSE THAN MOST PEOPLE IMAGINE.
There is a real risk that rising temperatures could spiral out of control
and reach levels that would wipe out the majority of species on the planet,
including the human species:

* CO2 in the atmosphere has risen sharply since industrialisation to a level
that has probably not been exceeded for at least 20 million years. This is
likely to mean substantial rises in global temperatures (note 1) (although
changes in ocean currents may cause some local cooling (note 2)).

* As temperatures rise, soils will cease to absorb CO2 as they do now and
will start to release it. As forests die, they will stop absorbing CO2 and
will release it as they burn or decay. These increases in CO2 will
accelerate rising temperatures (notes 3, 4).

* Rising temperatures may also cause methane to be released from the vast
deposits of methane hydrates that exist at the bottom of the sea-and also
from melting permafrost. Since methane is about 20 times more potent as a
greenhouse gas than CO2, release of methane would cause further increases in
temperature leading to the release of more methane in a positive feedback
loop or vicious circle (notes 5, 6, 7).

* There have been several mass extinctions in the geological history of the
world and some of them appear to have been caused by runaway global warming
(notes 8, 9).

* These things may happen much sooner and much more quickly than many people
imagine. On several occasions in the past, the world's climate has changed
dramatically and abruptly in the space of a few years (notes 10, 11).

Given these risks, there is an urgent need for large cuts in emissions of
CO2 and other greenhouse gases. This must be the very highest priority for
the world. The UK Government's aim of cutting CO2 emissions by 60% by the
year 2050 is welcome but deeper cuts are needed, and sooner.
THE REJECTION OF THE KYOTO PROTOCOL BY THE USA
AND THEIR TOTALLY INADEQUATE POLICIES FOR REDUCING
THEIR HUGE AND GROWING EMISSIONS OF CO2 ARE
A RECIPE FOR DISASTER.

THE THREAT OF CLIMATE CHANGE: QUOTES

"The ultimate concern is that if runaway global warming occurred,
temperatures could spiral out of control and make our planet uninhabitable.
.... this is the first time that a species has been at risk of generating its
own demise. ... The dinosaurs dominated the earth for 160 million years. We
are in danger of putting our future at risk after a mere quarter of a
million years." Michael Meacher, UK Minister for the Environment 1997-2003,
The Guardian, 14 February 2003.

"... the impacts of global warming are such that I have no hesitation in
describing it as a 'weapon of mass destruction'". Sir John Horton, former
chief executive of the UK Meteorological Office and co-chair of the
Scientific Assessment Working Group of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change, The Guardian, 28 July 2003.

"If today's warming continues and deep-sea temperatures cross the threshold
at which methane hydrates melt, huge amounts of methane could be released,
triggering drastic global warming." Jeff Hecht, New Scientist, 7 December
2002.

"If a qualitative climate change were to occur suddenly in the coming
century-within less than 10 years - as has happened many times before in
geological history, we may already have written our epitaph." Jeremy Rifkin,
President of the Foundation on Economic Trends in Washington DC, The
Guardian, 1 March 2002.

"Lost forest cover, decaying vegetation and overheated soils are expected to
release as much as 77 gigatonnes of carbon into the atmosphere. This will
raise global temperatures significantly more than the UN's Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change predicts to date ... THE BATTLE TO GET GREENHOUSE
GAS LEVELS UNDER CONTROL OUGHT TO BE TREATED AS GLOBAL PRIORITY NUMBER ONE."
Tam Dalyell MP, New Scientist, 7 February 2003 (emphasis added).

"... in a world without deep emissions reductions, warming will kill many
tropical forests in the second half of the twenty-first century, returning
vast quantities of carbon to the atmosphere. This would run the risk of
tipping the world into runaway global warming." Jeremy Leggett, The Carbon
War, 2001, p. 323.

Issued by the CAMPAIGN AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE (www.campaigncc.org).

NOTES

1 IPCC Third Assessment Report: Climate Change 2001
(http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/reports.htm).
2 Phil. Trans. Royal Soc. London A 361 (1810), 1961-1974, 2003.
3 Nature 408, 184-187, 2000.
4 Geophysical Research Letters 30 (9), 1479, 2003.
5 IPCC Climate Change 2001: Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and
Vulnerability (http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/index.htm).
6 Nature 401, 775-778, 1999.
7 Nature 406, 392-395, 2000.
8 When Life Nearly Died, M. J. Benton, Thames & Hudson, London, 2003.
9 See notes 5 and 6.
10 Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises, US National Academy of
Sciences, 2002 (http://www.nap.edu/books/0309074347/html).
11 Science 299 (5615), 2005-2010, 2003.

"CCC" wrote in message
...
CLIMATE CHANGE: IT'S WORSE THAN YOU THINK

We have heard a lot about climate change and the need to reduce emissions
of
greenhouse gases such as CO2. Although we are told that climate change
will
lead to an increase in floods, droughts and hurricanes, many people assume
that the changes will be very slow and, for people living in cold
climates,
they could mean some nice warm weather.

BUT THE THREAT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IS MUCH WORSE THAN MOST PEOPLE IMAGINE.
There is a real risk that rising temperatures could spiral out of control
and reach levels that would wipe out the majority of species on the
planet,
including the human species:

* CO2 in the atmosphere has risen sharply since industrialisation to a
level
that has probably not been exceeded for at least 20 million years. This is
likely to mean substantial rises in global temperatures (note 1) (although
changes in ocean currents may cause some local cooling (note 2)).

* As temperatures rise, soils will cease to absorb CO2 as they do now and
will start to release it. As forests die, they will stop absorbing CO2 and
will release it as they burn or decay. These increases in CO2 will
accelerate rising temperatures (notes 3, 4).

* Rising temperatures may also cause methane to be released from the vast
deposits of methane hydrates that exist at the bottom of the sea-and also
from melting permafrost. Since methane is about 20 times more potent as a
greenhouse gas than CO2, release of methane would cause further increases
in
temperature leading to the release of more methane in a positive feedback
loop or vicious circle (notes 5, 6, 7).

* There have been several mass extinctions in the geological history of
the
world and some of them appear to have been caused by runaway global
warming
(notes 8, 9).

* These things may happen much sooner and much more quickly than many
people
imagine. On several occasions in the past, the world's climate has changed
dramatically and abruptly in the space of a few years (notes 10, 11).

Given these risks, there is an urgent need for large cuts in emissions of
CO2 and other greenhouse gases. This must be the very highest priority for
the world. The UK Government's aim of cutting CO2 emissions by 60% by the
year 2050 is welcome but deeper cuts are needed, and sooner.
THE REJECTION OF THE KYOTO PROTOCOL BY THE USA
AND THEIR TOTALLY INADEQUATE POLICIES FOR REDUCING
THEIR HUGE AND GROWING EMISSIONS OF CO2 ARE
A RECIPE FOR DISASTER.

THE THREAT OF CLIMATE CHANGE: QUOTES

"The ultimate concern is that if runaway global warming occurred,
temperatures could spiral out of control and make our planet
uninhabitable.
... this is the first time that a species has been at risk of generating
its
own demise. ... The dinosaurs dominated the earth for 160 million years.
We
are in danger of putting our future at risk after a mere quarter of a
million years." Michael Meacher, UK Minister for the Environment
1997-2003,
The Guardian, 14 February 2003.

"... the impacts of global warming are such that I have no hesitation in
describing it as a 'weapon of mass destruction'". Sir John Horton, former
chief executive of the UK Meteorological Office and co-chair of the
Scientific Assessment Working Group of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change, The Guardian, 28 July 2003.

"If today's warming continues and deep-sea temperatures cross the
threshold
at which methane hydrates melt, huge amounts of methane could be released,
triggering drastic global warming." Jeff Hecht, New Scientist, 7 December
2002.

"If a qualitative climate change were to occur suddenly in the coming
century-within less than 10 years - as has happened many times before in
geological history, we may already have written our epitaph." Jeremy
Rifkin,
President of the Foundation on Economic Trends in Washington DC, The
Guardian, 1 March 2002.

"Lost forest cover, decaying vegetation and overheated soils are expected
to
release as much as 77 gigatonnes of carbon into the atmosphere. This will
raise global temperatures significantly more than the UN's
Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change predicts to date ... THE BATTLE TO GET GREENHOUSE
GAS LEVELS UNDER CONTROL OUGHT TO BE TREATED AS GLOBAL PRIORITY NUMBER
ONE."
Tam Dalyell MP, New Scientist, 7 February 2003 (emphasis added).

"... in a world without deep emissions reductions, warming will kill many
tropical forests in the second half of the twenty-first century, returning
vast quantities of carbon to the atmosphere. This would run the risk of
tipping the world into runaway global warming." Jeremy Leggett, The Carbon
War, 2001, p. 323.

Issued by the CAMPAIGN AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE (www.campaigncc.org).

NOTES

1 IPCC Third Assessment Report: Climate Change 2001
(http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/reports.htm).
2 Phil. Trans. Royal Soc. London A 361 (1810), 1961-1974, 2003.
3 Nature 408, 184-187, 2000.
4 Geophysical Research Letters 30 (9), 1479, 2003.
5 IPCC Climate Change 2001: Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and
Vulnerability (http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/index.htm).
6 Nature 401, 775-778, 1999.
7 Nature 406, 392-395, 2000.
8 When Life Nearly Died, M. J. Benton, Thames & Hudson, London, 2003.
9 See notes 5 and 6.
10 Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises, US National Academy of
Sciences, 2002 (http://www.nap.edu/books/0309074347/html).
11 Science 299 (5615), 2005-2010, 2003.

Umm, any chance of some snow then?

A runaway greenhouse effect will happen sometime in the future as the sun
slowly increases in intensity (I think it is about 1% increase every 100
million years). The question is when - without human intervention perhaps
500-1000 million years?

John

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3451787.stm

CCC wrote:
CLIMATE CHANGE: IT'S WORSE THAN YOU THINK

We have heard a lot about climate change and the need to reduce
emissions of greenhouse gases such as CO2. Although we are told that
climate change will lead to an increase in floods, droughts and
hurricanes, many people assume that the changes will be very slow
and, for people living in cold climates, they could mean some nice
warm weather.

BUT THE THREAT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IS MUCH WORSE THAN MOST PEOPLE
IMAGINE. There is a real risk that rising temperatures could spiral
out of control and reach levels that would wipe out the majority of
species on the planet, including the human species:

* CO2 in the atmosphere has risen sharply since industrialisation to
a level that has probably not been exceeded for at least 20 million
years. This is likely to mean substantial rises in global
temperatures (note 1) (although changes in ocean currents may cause
some local cooling (note 2)).

* As temperatures rise, soils will cease to absorb CO2 as they do now
and will start to release it. As forests die, they will stop
absorbing CO2 and will release it as they burn or decay. These
increases in CO2 will accelerate rising temperatures (notes 3, 4).

* Rising temperatures may also cause methane to be released from the
vast deposits of methane hydrates that exist at the bottom of the
sea-and also from melting permafrost. Since methane is about 20 times
more potent as a greenhouse gas than CO2, release of methane would
cause further increases in temperature leading to the release of more
methane in a positive feedback loop or vicious circle (notes 5, 6, 7).

* There have been several mass extinctions in the geological history
of the world and some of them appear to have been caused by runaway
global warming (notes 8, 9).

* These things may happen much sooner and much more quickly than many
people imagine. On several occasions in the past, the world's climate
has changed dramatically and abruptly in the space of a few years
(notes 10, 11).

Given these risks, there is an urgent need for large cuts in
emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. This must be the very
highest priority for the world. The UK Government's aim of cutting
CO2 emissions by 60% by the year 2050 is welcome but deeper cuts are
needed, and sooner.
THE REJECTION OF THE KYOTO PROTOCOL BY THE USA
AND THEIR TOTALLY INADEQUATE POLICIES FOR REDUCING
THEIR HUGE AND GROWING EMISSIONS OF CO2 ARE
A RECIPE FOR DISASTER.

THE THREAT OF CLIMATE CHANGE: QUOTES

"The ultimate concern is that if runaway global warming occurred,
temperatures could spiral out of control and make our planet
uninhabitable. ... this is the first time that a species has been at
risk of generating its own demise. ... The dinosaurs dominated the
earth for 160 million years. We are in danger of putting our future
at risk after a mere quarter of a million years." Michael Meacher, UK
Minister for the Environment 1997-2003, The Guardian, 14 February
2003.

"... the impacts of global warming are such that I have no hesitation
in describing it as a 'weapon of mass destruction'". Sir John Horton,
former chief executive of the UK Meteorological Office and co-chair
of the Scientific Assessment Working Group of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change, The Guardian, 28 July 2003.

"If today's warming continues and deep-sea temperatures cross the
threshold at which methane hydrates melt, huge amounts of methane
could be released, triggering drastic global warming." Jeff Hecht,
New Scientist, 7 December 2002.

"If a qualitative climate change were to occur suddenly in the coming
century-within less than 10 years - as has happened many times before
in geological history, we may already have written our epitaph."
Jeremy Rifkin, President of the Foundation on Economic Trends in
Washington DC, The Guardian, 1 March 2002.

"Lost forest cover, decaying vegetation and overheated soils are
expected to release as much as 77 gigatonnes of carbon into the
atmosphere. This will raise global temperatures significantly more
than the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts to
date ... THE BATTLE TO GET GREENHOUSE GAS LEVELS UNDER CONTROL OUGHT
TO BE TREATED AS GLOBAL PRIORITY NUMBER ONE." Tam Dalyell MP, New
Scientist, 7 February 2003 (emphasis added).

"... in a world without deep emissions reductions, warming will kill
many tropical forests in the second half of the twenty-first century,
returning vast quantities of carbon to the atmosphere. This would run
the risk of tipping the world into runaway global warming." Jeremy
Leggett, The Carbon War, 2001, p. 323.

Issued by the CAMPAIGN AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE (www.campaigncc.org).

NOTES

1 IPCC Third Assessment Report: Climate Change 2001
(http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/reports.htm).
2 Phil. Trans. Royal Soc. London A 361 (1810), 1961-1974, 2003.
3 Nature 408, 184-187, 2000.
4 Geophysical Research Letters 30 (9), 1479, 2003.
5 IPCC Climate Change 2001: Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and
Vulnerability (http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/index.htm).
6 Nature 401, 775-778, 1999.
7 Nature 406, 392-395, 2000.
8 When Life Nearly Died, M. J. Benton, Thames & Hudson, London, 2003.
9 See notes 5 and 6.
10 Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises, US National Academy of
Sciences, 2002 (http://www.nap.edu/books/0309074347/html).
11 Science 299 (5615), 2005-2010, 2003.

"Pharmanaut" wrote in message


http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3451787.stm

It must be true if it was on the BBC.


--
Posted via Mailgate.ORG Server - http://www.Mailgate.ORG

Yes, but up until the industrial revolution, the increase in the sun's
output was balanced by a decrease in atmospheric CO2, so the climate
remained (relatively) stable over 10s of millions of years.

Long enough to allow the evolution of surfing.

--
Graham
Penzance


A runaway greenhouse effect will happen sometime in the future as the sun
slowly increases in intensity (I think it is about 1% increase every 100
million years). The question is when - without human intervention perhaps
500-1000 million years?

John

On Tue, 3 Feb 2004 00:01:23 +0000 (UTC), "John Horobin"
wrote:

A runaway greenhouse effect will happen sometime in the future as the sun
slowly increases in intensity (I think it is about 1% increase every 100
million years). The question is when - without human intervention perhaps
500-1000 million years?


We're all doomed anyway, either by the big crunch or heat death of the universe.

JPG



John

JPG wrote:

We're all doomed anyway, either by the big crunch or heat death of
the universe.


........ Don't write off Hoyles steady state yet.

Les

"JPG" wrote in message
...
On Tue, 3 Feb 2004 00:01:23 +0000 (UTC), "John Horobin"
wrote:

A runaway greenhouse effect will happen sometime in the future as the sun
slowly increases in intensity (I think it is about 1% increase every 100
million years). The question is when - without human intervention
perhaps
500-1000 million years?


We're all doomed anyway, either by the big crunch or heat death of the
universe.


is it worth making the effort to live long enough to see it? I'd hate to put
the effort in and discover it was a boring waste of time :-))

Jim Webster

Yn erthygl , sgrifennodd
JPG :
We're all doomed anyway, either by the big crunch or heat death of the
universe.

Why? Isn't 1,000,000,000 years enough to learn about interstellar and
time travel?

Adrian


--
Adrian Shaw ais@
Adran Cyfrifiadureg, Prifysgol Cymru, aber.
Aberystwyth, Ceredigion, Cymru ac.
http://users.aber.ac.uk/ais uk