Well this winter is nearly over. This is what TWO say about it and I don't
think anyone of us can disagree really.

"With 14 days of winter left we are projecting a mean Central England
Temperature (CET) value for December, January and February of approximately
5.5C, which is about 1.5C warmer than the 1961-90 average. The CET value is
widely used by meteorologists to determine how warm or cold a month or
season has been. If our projection is correct it will mean winter 2003/04
has been another very mild one. So it looks as though we made the right call
with our winter forecast which was issued at the end of November".

Source: TWO.

My Comment:

There is not much you can say really. I have seen
the daffodils out in one or two places already. In fact I saw some last
week.
One wonders when we will get a cold winter. This warm stuff is nice but
in some ways it does not seem right. We all take it for granted now as
though it is a basic human right to get a mild winter. The last cold one
overall was 1986/ 87. We had that big cold spell in Feb 1991 and since then
it has been mild.
Anyway we can all dream of a cold winter but my gut feeling says we may
have to wait longer yet. For a start there were not months with a CET below
zero from 1895 to 1940. Our last CET below 0C was Feb 1986. On that score we
will have to wait until 2031 for another winter month with a CET below 0C.
It is something to think about.


--
************************************************** **************************
************************************************** *
Gavin Staples.

website updated regularly
www.gavinstaples.com

For the latest lecture in the Darwin Lecture Series in Cambridge, please
click on my site, and then click on the Darwin Lecture series link.


"Neither philosophy, nor religion, nor morality, nor wisdom, nor
interest will ever govern nations or parties against their vanity,
their pride, their resentment or revenge, or their avarice or
ambition. Nothing but force and power and strength can restrain them." --
John Adams.


All outgoing emails are checked for viruses by Norton Internet Security
Professional 2004.
************************************************** **************************
************************************************** **

Hi Gavin, old news but you summed it up nicely...
Most suspected, and then gave upmany years ago, accepting things have
changed.
I think we will need some large scale climate change for us to get anything
severe ever again... e.g. all thse theories that are coming out.. e.g.
iceberg, jet stream related etc.
---------------------------------------------------------


Anyway we can all dream of a cold winter but my gut feeling says we
may
have to wait longer yet. For a start there were not months with a CET
below
zero from 1895 to 1940. Our last CET below 0C was Feb 1986. On that score
we
will have to wait until 2031 for another winter month with a CET below 0C.
It is something to think about.

So it looks as though we made the right call
with our winter forecast which was issued at the end of November".

Source: TWO.

My Comment:

We made the right call , if i remember correctly two was bashing
others left right and center for a bad forecast they made



Nothing changes :]

Not only are the daffodils in full bloom around here and in south London (and
have been for weeks) but yesterday I noticed that the roadside trees that have
been in blossom for about a week or so (I'm not very good on trees! - very pale
pink blossom, nearly white) are now sprouting leaves. Leaves on deciduous trees
in mid February!

Clematic in the garden shooting vigorously and several shrubs hardly seem to
have stopped growing during the winter.


Julian Mayes, West Molesey, Surrey.

A couple of months ago I mentioned in passing that we were slipping into yet
another mild winter ,and was taken to task by Victor (where he ?),and who
suggested that I had a crystal ball.
Well Vic how much would you offer me .......?

RonB
"Gavin Staples" wrote in message
...
Well this winter is nearly over. This is what TWO say about it and I don't
think anyone of us can disagree really.

"With 14 days of winter left we are projecting a mean Central England
Temperature (CET) value for December, January and February of
approximately
5.5C, which is about 1.5C warmer than the 1961-90 average. The CET value
is
widely used by meteorologists to determine how warm or cold a month or
season has been. If our projection is correct it will mean winter 2003/04
has been another very mild one. So it looks as though we made the right
call
with our winter forecast which was issued at the end of November".

Source: TWO.

My Comment:

There is not much you can say really. I have seen
the daffodils out in one or two places already. In fact I saw some last
week.
One wonders when we will get a cold winter. This warm stuff is nice
but
in some ways it does not seem right. We all take it for granted now as
though it is a basic human right to get a mild winter. The last cold one
overall was 1986/ 87. We had that big cold spell in Feb 1991 and since
then
it has been mild.
Anyway we can all dream of a cold winter but my gut feeling says we
may
have to wait longer yet. For a start there were not months with a CET
below
zero from 1895 to 1940. Our last CET below 0C was Feb 1986. On that score
we
will have to wait until 2031 for another winter month with a CET below 0C.
It is something to think about.


--

************************************************** **************************
************************************************** *
Gavin Staples.

website updated regularly
www.gavinstaples.com

For the latest lecture in the Darwin Lecture Series in Cambridge, please
click on my site, and then click on the Darwin Lecture series link.


"Neither philosophy, nor religion, nor morality, nor wisdom, nor
interest will ever govern nations or parties against their vanity,
their pride, their resentment or revenge, or their avarice or
ambition. Nothing but force and power and strength can restrain them." --
John Adams.


All outgoing emails are checked for viruses by Norton Internet Security
Professional 2004.

************************************************** **************************
************************************************** **

"Ron Button" wrote in message
...
A couple of months ago I mentioned in passing that we were slipping into
yet
another mild winter ,and was taken to task by Victor (where he ?),and who
suggested that I had a crystal ball.
Well Vic how much would you offer me .......?



Come on stop this, or you'll turn into TWO. Its not a competition. Those
predicting a mild winter will always have recent history on their side.

Yes Joe ,my point exactly

RonB
"Joe, Bedford." wrote in message
...

"Ron Button" wrote in message
...
A couple of months ago I mentioned in passing that we were slipping into
yet
another mild winter ,and was taken to task by Victor (where he ?),and
who
suggested that I had a crystal ball.
Well Vic how much would you offer me .......?



Come on stop this, or you'll turn into TWO. Its not a competition. Those
predicting a mild winter will always have recent history on their side.

Bumble bees and honeys bees out in my garden today. Hawthorn coming out on
the hedges.

Peacock butterfly on the 1st.

Lovel innit. Just dreading the dog days of summer.




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On 15 Feb 2004 22:08:07 GMT, JJCMayes1 wrote:

Not only are the daffodils in full bloom around here and in south
London (and have been for weeks)

The most advanced Daffs here are just shoots about 2" high... The
Snowdrops have been out about a week.

but yesterday I noticed that the roadside trees that have been in
blossom for about a week or so (I'm not very good on trees! - very
pale pink blossom, nearly white) are now sprouting leaves.

Probably some form of ornamental cherry. Again with our trees the
earliest of the earlies are only just starting to think about bursting
bud.

--
Cheers Dave.
Nr Garrigill, Cumbria. 421m ASL. pam is missing e-mail

The last cold one
overall was 1986/ 87. We had that big cold spell in Feb 1991 and since
then
it has been mild.

1995/96 winter was cold as far as I remember.

Adam