"Norman Lynagh" wrote in message
...
It really is a mug's game trying to
forecast where will get the rain and where will miss out in this sort
of
situation.

Hi, Norman,

Put your money on the whole of NE England for the next week!

ATB

--
Ken Cook, Copley (5miles north of Barnard Castle), County Durham.
830ft
http://mysite.wanadoo-members.co.uk/copley
(MO climat. site updated before 10Z and 19Z daily)
kencookATcopleydurham.freeserve.co.uk
(All times GMT)





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Total rainfall in Chalfont St Giles for this "event" so far is only 0.5
mm, not enough to damp the dust. It really is a mug's game trying to
forecast where will get the rain and where will miss out in this sort of
situation.

Max temp yesterday 31.1c. Min last night 20.4c.

Norman.
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
18 Kings Road
Chalfont St Giles
England tel: 01494 870220

One heavy shower early this morning - but that was it. Not enough to fill
the water butt! Whatever is said about the difficulty of forecasting that
was not put across in the current bout of forecasts which were as definite
as you can get for heavy blanket rainfall in most of England, raining all
day today in the S.E. No doubt expressed! Well only by Will Hand!

Dave
"Norman Lynagh" wrote in message
...
Total rainfall in Chalfont St Giles for this "event" so far is only 0.5
mm, not enough to damp the dust. It really is a mug's game trying to
forecast where will get the rain and where will miss out in this sort of
situation.

Max temp yesterday 31.1c. Min last night 20.4c.

Norman.
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
18 Kings Road
Chalfont St Giles
England tel: 01494 870220

"Dave.C" wrote in message
...
One heavy shower early this morning - but that was it. Not enough to fill
the water butt! Whatever is said about the difficulty of forecasting that
was not put across in the current bout of forecasts which were as definite
as you can get for heavy blanket rainfall in most of England, raining all
day today in the S.E. No doubt expressed! Well only by Will Hand!

Dave

The difficulty in getting the detail right and expected large variations in
weather locally (particularly rainfall amounts) has been emphasised for a
number of days and continues to be. If this hasn't been conveyed in the
broadcasts (I don't watch them) then this is disappointing. In saying that I
was surprised at the lack of more organised rain across southern areas
yesterday, at least during daylight hours.

I think Norman hit the nail on the head earlier :-)

Jon.

In message , Jon O'Rourke
writes
"Dave.C" wrote in message
k...
One heavy shower early this morning - but that was it. Not enough to fill
the water butt! Whatever is said about the difficulty of forecasting that
was not put across in the current bout of forecasts which were as definite
as you can get for heavy blanket rainfall in most of England, raining all
day today in the S.E. No doubt expressed! Well only by Will Hand!

Dave

The difficulty in getting the detail right and expected large variations in
weather locally (particularly rainfall amounts) has been emphasised for a
number of days and continues to be. If this hasn't been conveyed in the
broadcasts (I don't watch them) then this is disappointing. In saying that I
was surprised at the lack of more organised rain across southern areas
yesterday, at least during daylight hours.

I haven't seen many TV forecasts over the past couple of days but those
I have seen have been of the "doom and gloom with wall to wall
torrential rain" variety. In this sort of situation it's never like
that. Some places get very high totals while others get little or none
and it's almost impossible to forecast which areas will be affected. The
forecasts I have seen in the past couple of days haven't mentioned this
variability. They have given the impression that pretty well everywhere
would get 25-50 mm or more. Here in Chalfont St Giles we have had 3.2 mm
out of this whole event so far.

When the severe weather warnings give a 40 percent probability of
disruption resulting from heavy rain it is this that tends to be
highlighted on the TV forecasts. What is never pointed out is that there
is a 60 percent chance that it won't happen i.e. the balance of
probabilities is that it won't happen even though there is a possibility
that it will. In reality, in the present situation, some areas, probably
fairly localised, will experience disruption and flooding while most
places will not. It's not easy to find the words to get the right
message across. The TV forecasts I have seen in the past couple of days
have failed to find the right words.

The weather presenter on Sky News this afternoon went a bit over the top
saying that the low to the west of the British Isles was giving us a
taste of autumn and winter. If we get these temperatures in winter then
we really do have a warming problem :-)

Norman.
(delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail)
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
Chalfont St Giles
England

Norman Lynagh wrote in message ...
In message , Jon O'Rourke
writes
"Dave.C" wrote in message
. uk...
One heavy shower early this morning - but that was it. Not enough to fill
the water butt! Whatever is said about the difficulty of forecasting that
was not put across in the current bout of forecasts which were as definite
as you can get for heavy blanket rainfall in most of England, raining all
day today in the S.E. No doubt expressed! Well only by Will Hand!

Dave

The difficulty in getting the detail right and expected large variations in
weather locally (particularly rainfall amounts) has been emphasised for a
number of days and continues to be. If this hasn't been conveyed in the
broadcasts (I don't watch them) then this is disappointing. In saying that I
was surprised at the lack of more organised rain across southern areas
yesterday, at least during daylight hours.

I haven't seen many TV forecasts over the past couple of days but those
I have seen have been of the "doom and gloom with wall to wall
torrential rain" variety. In this sort of situation it's never like
that. Some places get very high totals while others get little or none
and it's almost impossible to forecast which areas will be affected. The
forecasts I have seen in the past couple of days haven't mentioned this
variability. They have given the impression that pretty well everywhere
would get 25-50 mm or more. Here in Chalfont St Giles we have had 3.2 mm
out of this whole event so far.

When the severe weather warnings give a 40 percent probability of
disruption resulting from heavy rain it is this that tends to be
highlighted on the TV forecasts. What is never pointed out is that there
is a 60 percent chance that it won't happen i.e. the balance of
probabilities is that it won't happen even though there is a possibility
that it will. In reality, in the present situation, some areas, probably
fairly localised, will experience disruption and flooding while most
places will not. It's not easy to find the words to get the right
message across. The TV forecasts I have seen in the past couple of days
have failed to find the right words.

The weather presenter on Sky News this afternoon went a bit over the top
saying that the low to the west of the British Isles was giving us a
taste of autumn and winter. If we get these temperatures in winter then
we really do have a warming problem :-)


Hi Norman, it is not just about words it is all about expressing uncertainty.
I'm sure I speak for many forecasters faced with this situation that confidence
in any prediction in these situations has to be low. And if it *is* low then
they should jolly well say so. Above all else it is good science !

You will note that over the weekend I deliberately contrasted the automated MetO
web site forecast with other forecasts which were all different. This
illustrated the uncertainty but in any particular one the uncertainty was not
expressed.

You are absolutely right about the early warning, in my view it *was* and still
is justified at that level of confidence, but perhaps raw figures are not the
best way of putting the message across to the general public.
Maybe saying something like "3-1 against severe weather in any one place" would
be better ? Not easy, and perhaps we shouldn't be too critical of those people
who do at least try.

Cheers,

Will.
--

" A cup is most useful when empty "
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On Mon, 9 Aug 2004 23:01:54 +0100, "Will"
wrote:


Hi Norman, it is not just about words it is all about expressing uncertainty.
I'm sure I speak for many forecasters faced with this situation that confidence
in any prediction in these situations has to be low. And if it *is* low then
they should jolly well say so. Above all else it is good science !

Unfortunately though, these days weather forecasting is very
commercial and so becomes political. Just like your average politician
doesn't want to admit mistakes and uncertainty, the same now seems to
mostly go for weather forecasters too.