In message , phil
writes
On Tue, 26 Oct 2004 18:19:23 +0100, "Martin Rowley"
wrote:


... I think this is the problem: the low as such *is* going to be
noteworthy .... but perhaps primarily for our friends on the High Seas
and of course down in Devon, Cornwall and the Irish Republic
(principally - but not exclusively). The problem is, everyone is
expecting high winds everywhere!

And when said winds don't materialise for the majority of the country
then the 'great' British public will once again blame the met office
(instead of blaming the accursed media who will over-hype and mislead
in order to create a story).

Although the current Met Office warning is for severe gales as far east
as SE England, East Anglia and Lincolnshire. That does seem a bit over
the top.

Norman.
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
18 Kings Road
Chalfont St Giles
England tel: 01494 870220

It is not the the wind that is going to be the problem, even if it does top
70mph. That's nothing out of the ordinary for coastal Cornwall. I've
recorded 81mph in 'sheltered' Penzance. It's the spring tide, coupled with
the gale being from the SE (the worst direction for S Cornwall) . The sea
was within a foot or so of flooding parts of Newlyn yesterday. (There was a
good swell then, it was relatively calm today). Tomorrow the astronomical
tide is significantly higher, and the pressure will be much lower.

--
Graham
Penzance

"Martin Rowley" wrote in message
...

"Joe Hunt" wrote in message
...

The media are really hyping this one up (see Jon O'Rourke's earlier post)
but I see nothing more than some rain and wind, nothing exceptional, as
it
fills in situ over the sea.


... I think this is the problem: the low as such *is* going to be
noteworthy .... but perhaps primarily for our friends on the High Seas and
of course down in Devon, Cornwall and the Irish Republic (principally -
but not exclusively). The problem is, everyone is expecting high winds
everywhere!

Martin.


--
FAQ & Glossary for uk.sci.weather at:-
http://homepage.ntlworld.com/booty.weather/uswfaqfr.htm

"phil" wrote in message
...
On Tue, 26 Oct 2004 18:19:23 +0100, "Martin Rowley"

And when said winds don't materialise for the majority of the country
then the 'great' British public will once again blame the met office
(instead of blaming the accursed media who will over-hype and mislead
in order to create a story).

To be fair the latest BBC forecast has suggested winds gusting to
50-60mph, *possibly* 70mph later in SW England, Wales and the east
of Northern Ireland. I don't think they ever said these winds would be
across the whole country ( when are they ever?) and indeed this seems
to be something of a downgrading as 70mph winds were expected
yesterday generally in these areas.

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co....rPictures.html

... I think this is the problem: the low as such *is* going to be
noteworthy .... but perhaps primarily for our friends on the High Seas
and of course down in Devon, Cornwall and the Irish Republic
(principally - but not exclusively). The problem is, everyone is
expecting high winds everywhere!

This is what our local rag is saying about Norfolk

http://www.eveningnews24.co.uk/Conte...me=26+Oct+2004
+12%3A51&tbrand=ENOnline&tCategory=NEWS&category=N ews&brand=ENOnline&itemi
d=NOED26+Oct+2004+12%3A51%3A27%3A947

or

http://tinyurl.com/4mwrl

"Gale force winds are forecast

OLIVIA RICHWALD

October 26, 2004 12:51

WEATHER forecasters today warned that Norfolk was about to be hit by gale force
winds and heavy rain.

The storms and strong winds will hit Britain tomorrow in the west and batter
the whole country before moving in over East Anglia.

By tomorrow night the winds could be about 50 mph — which is strong enough to
fell trees and cause serious problems for high-sided vehicles.

According to Weatherquest — a forecasting service based at the University of
East Anglia — the strong winds will hit the region early Wednesday evening
and last through the night into Thursday.

But Norfolk is likely to escape the worst of the weather — with places in the
south west of England likely to be battered by winds of between 70-80mph.

Flooding is likely as heavy rain runs north into areas affected by recent
floods, particularly Wales and the Midlands.

Drivers, in particular, were today warned to be on their guard against fallen
trees and wet leaves on the roads, which could make conditions slippery.

Phil Garner, a forecaster at Weatherquest, said: “There is a deep area of low
pressure coming in over Ireland and that is associated with strong winds.

“We will see winds picking up on Wednesday, up to 50mph in the evening, and
blustery showers on Thursday.

“It could blow through quickly, but there could be some felled trees around
on Thursday morning.

“At this time of year leaves on the road are another hazard.

“People should be cautious on the roads and there may be a problem for
lorries, but as long as people are just careful there shouldn't be any major
problems.�

Mr Garner said people should keep checking the forecast so they could avoid
being out and about in the worst of the weather.

The Highways Agency has warned motorists to drive safely in the wet.

And the Association of British Insurers said that dislodged roof tiles and
leaks were among the biggest problems.

It might have seemed very damp this month, but October rainfall has been very
varied around the county.

According to Weatherquest, Coltishall has had slightly more than average for
October, but Marham, near King's Lynn has seen 160 per cent of its usual
rainfall."


--This is an invalid email address to avoid spam--
to get correct one remove fame & fortune
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--Due to financial crisis the light at the end of the tunnel is switched off--

The media are really hyping this one up (see Jon O'Rourke's earlier post)
but I see nothing more than some rain and wind, nothing exceptional, as it
fills in situ over the sea.

Not all the media are hyping it. The BBC R4 forecast seemed
deliberately to be playing it down, saying it would certainly be windy and wet
in the west but that this sort of weather is to be expected at this time of
year. It was all very sensible and I was agreeably surprised.
It's quite a Low though. A central pressure (forecast) of 953 mb well
south of 50°N in October is pretty unusual. But, as Joe says, it's going to
fill quite rapidly in situ.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

"Martin Rowley" wrote in message
...
And of course, you don't even need to call on Google (with all its hidden
charms) ... the definition (along with many others) has been in the
Glossary for many years ....

http://homepage.ntlworld.com/booty.w...Q/subindex.htm

In a globally applicable form, drop by 1 hpa/hour * (sin(ö) / (sin(60deg))),
where ö** is the latitude of the low centre -if I'm not mistaken. Maybe this
drop should be sustained for at least some hours (?)

Yannis, SE Athens
** i've typed the greek letter 'phi', in case it doesn't appear well in your
software.

"Yannis" wrote in message
...
"Martin Rowley" wrote in
message ...
And of course, you don't even need to call on Google (with all its
hidden charms) ... the definition (along with many others) has been
in the Glossary for many years ....

http://homepage.ntlworld.com/booty.w...Q/subindex.htm

In a globally applicable form, drop by 1 hpa/hour * (sin(ö) /
(sin(60deg))), where ö** is the latitude of the low centre -if I'm not
mistaken. Maybe this drop should be sustained for at least some hours
(?)


.... you are right of course: I think the "24 in 24" is just easier to
remember ;-)

Martin.

At 26/0000Z Low just NW of the Azores ... Lat 41degN ... 994 hPa
At 27/0000Z Low NW FitzRoy ... Lat 47degN ... 953 hPa

Difference in pressure over 24hr = 41 hPa, with a mean latitude of
44degN: I make it that the value to exceed was 19hPa, so our "Carolin"
( http://www.met.fu-berlin.de/de/wetter/maps/anabwkna.gif )
grossly exceeds the criterion, which as Yannis has said, should be
maintained for a period of 24hr.

Martin.




"Martin Rowley" wrote in
message ...

"Yannis" wrote in message
...
"Martin Rowley" wrote in
message ...
And of course, you don't even need to call on Google (with all its
hidden charms) ... the definition (along with many others) has been
in the Glossary for many years ....

http://homepage.ntlworld.com/booty.w...Q/subindex.htm

In a globally applicable form, drop by 1 hpa/hour * (sin(ö) /
(sin(60deg))), where ö** is the latitude of the low centre -if I'm
not mistaken. Maybe this drop should be sustained for at least some
hours (?)


... you are right of course: I think the "24 in 24" is just easier to
remember ;-)

Martin.