Cant believe i woke to a cracking morning here on the south coast at
Brighton, blue skies and light winds, none of the forecast doom and gloom.

Robbie

What doom and gloom forecast? It was allways going to be a westcountry
event.

"LitePix" wrote in message
...
Cant believe i woke to a cracking morning here on the south coast at
Brighton, blue skies and light winds, none of the forecast doom and gloom.

Robbie

Our local forecast was going for torrential rain and gale force winds
overnight at 18.00 yesterday.

"Peter Hearnden" wrote in message
...
What doom and gloom forecast? It was allways going to be a westcountry
event.

"LitePix" wrote in message
...
Cant believe i woke to a cracking morning here on the south coast at
Brighton, blue skies and light winds, none of the forecast doom and
gloom.

Robbie

In message , Peter Hearnden
writes
What doom and gloom forecast? It was allways going to be a westcountry
event.

Not so. The Met Office advance warnings for a couple of days were giving
warning of severe gales and heavy rain as far east as the Midlands,
Lincolnshire, East Anglia and SE England for yesterday and today, as
well as areas further west. The warnings for the West Country turned out
to be pretty well spot on but for areas further east they were not. Here
in South Bucks the event has produced nothing more than Force 4-5 and
less than 5 mm of rain. It was shirt-sleeve order on the golf course
this morning in lengthy spells of warm sunshine. The first shower
arrived shortly after we finished our round :-). Many people were asking
me what had happened to the storm.

Norman.
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
18 Kings Road
Chalfont St Giles
England tel: 01494 870220

"Norman Lynagh" wrote in message
...

Not so. The Met Office advance warnings for a couple of days were giving
warning of severe gales and heavy rain as far east as the Midlands,
Lincolnshire, East Anglia and SE England for yesterday and today, as
well as areas further west. The warnings for the West Country turned out
to be pretty well spot on but for areas further east they were not. Here
in South Bucks the event has produced nothing more than Force 4-5 and
less than 5 mm of rain.

True, the warnings did cover areas further east as mentioned but the
corresponding *risk of disruption* probabilities were lower for these areas.

Jon.

In message , Jon O'Rourke
writes

"Norman Lynagh" wrote in message
...

Not so. The Met Office advance warnings for a couple of days were giving
warning of severe gales and heavy rain as far east as the Midlands,
Lincolnshire, East Anglia and SE England for yesterday and today, as
well as areas further west. The warnings for the West Country turned out
to be pretty well spot on but for areas further east they were not. Here
in South Bucks the event has produced nothing more than Force 4-5 and
less than 5 mm of rain.

True, the warnings did cover areas further east as mentioned but the
corresponding *risk of disruption* probabilities were lower for these areas.

Jon.

Very true, Jon. The thinking behind the warnings probably turned out to
be pretty accurate but perhaps the wording of them left something to be
desired and didn't convey the message too well. From memory, the text of
the warnings started along the lines of

"Advance warning of severe gales and heavy rain affecting
............."

This was followed by a list of areas covering a lot of the country. The
casual reader in, for example, Buckinghamshire could easily have gained
the impression that severe gales and heavy rain were expected in his
area. Many of my golfing friends certainly got that impression. The
weather presentations on BBC TV two or three days ago also gave that
impression, indicating that a lot of the country would be affected by
severe gales and very heavy rain. "The calm before the storm" was a
phrase that was used on quite a few of the BBC forecasts two or three
days ago.

It's a very good example of the tightrope that the Met Office has to
walk in such situations. In reality, two or three days ago it was
impossible to predict just how far east the really strong winds would
come. The conundrum is how to provide a warning that is useful but yet
also conveys the appropriate level of uncertainty. I don't know the
answer to that.

Norman .
(delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail)
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
Chalfont St Giles
England

"Norman Lynagh" wrote in message
newsF5XyRMVWRgBFwqC@weather-
This was followed by a list of areas covering a lot of the country. The
casual reader in, for example, Buckinghamshire could easily have gained
the impression that severe gales and heavy rain were expected in his
area.
snip


Flashes now out for heavy rain numerous areas including Buckinghamshire :-
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/...n.html#warning

Jon.

"Norman Lynagh" wrote in message
newsF5XyRMVWRgBFwqC@weather-
This was followed by a list of areas covering a lot of the country. The
casual reader in, for example, Buckinghamshire could easily have gained
the impression that severe gales and heavy rain were expected in his
area.
snip


Flashes now out for heavy rain over numerous areas including Buckinghamshire
:-
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/...n.html#warning

Jon.

Jon O'Rourke wrote:

True, the warnings did cover areas further east as mentioned but the
corresponding *risk of disruption* probabilities were lower for these areas.

It's hard to imagine how much disruption would've been caused by the
0.5mm that I recorded here in Canterbury. Today and yesterday were
breezy and today there were some lengthy spells of sunshine (at least
according to my webcam archives - I can't see outside from my office!)

--
Jonathan Stott
Canterbury Weather: http://www.jstott.me.uk/weather/

In message , Jon O'Rourke
writes
"Norman Lynagh" wrote in message
newsF5XyRMVWRgBFwqC@weather-
This was followed by a list of areas covering a lot of the country. The
casual reader in, for example, Buckinghamshire could easily have gained
the impression that severe gales and heavy rain were expected in his
area.
snip


Flashes now out for heavy rain over numerous areas including Buckinghamshire
:-
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/...n.html#warning

Jon.

A very brief splash of heavy rain about an hour ago measured 1.2 mm but
that is all we have had since 5 p.m. Surprisingly little, considering
the impressive-looking radar imagery. Looks as if it is all over now.

Norman.
(delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail)
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
Chalfont St Giles
England