Just a reminder, while some feel let down by what seems to have been an
over-optimistic, at least for the snow lovers (like me) forecast for today,
sometimes forecasts have been significantly under estimated as detailed
below for events 58 years ago next week:

Quote
03/03/1947

Synopsis - 'Pressure is low between the Azores and the British Isles. A
ridge of high pressure extending from Greenland across central Britain to
Germany is moving slowly northeast. Rain will soon spread into Cornwall and
will move very slowly north-east and turn to sleet or snow; the snow is
expected to spread to all southern and central districts of England and
Wales by midday tomorrow'.

Outlook - 'A change to a mild type of weather with local fog at first,
especially in the Midlands and East Anglia; a period of snow elsewhere,
followed by a slow thaw spreading from the south'.


04/03/1947

Synopsis - 'A ridge of high pressure over Scotland and northeast England is
drifting slowly northeast. Mild conditions in the South of the British Isles
will spread slowly north over England and Wales. A belt of intermittent snow
will move slowly north over England and Wales turning to rain in the South'.

Outlook - 'A slow thaw and fog spreading north over Scotland with snow at
first. Occasional rain in the south with some bright periods in eastern
districts.Mild in the South, becoming milder in the North'.
/Unquote

Then, what actually happened on the 05/03/1947 has become so well documented
and become part of UK weather legend - it needs no further comment from me
beyond than the post title.

No doubt, under the general circumstances of that time, many dreams of
winters *end* were badly broken. One day, since it is always so knife-edge
in the UK in winter, it will go wrong the other way again, GW or not.

Source of the above weather information - from George Booth's excellent
website detailing all the aspects of that winter.

--
Pete

Please take my dog out twice to e-mail

---------------------------------------------------------------
The views expressed above are entirely those of the writer and
do not represent the views, policy or understanding of any
other person or official body.
---------------------------------------------------------------

Trouble was Pete, it was UKMO/BBC who were over optimistic!
As for 58 rears ago , I would've hoped that meteorology and the
equipment used would have moved on! By the way when did the Met have
access to radar?

Trouble was Pete, it was UKMO/BBC who were over optimistic!
As for 58 rears ago , I would've hoped that meteorology and the
equipment used would have moved on! By the way when did the Met have
access to radar?

Trouble was Pete, it was UKMO/BBC who were over optimistic!
As for 58 rears ago , I would've hoped that meteorology and the
equipment used would have moved on! By the way when did the Met have
access to radar?

Trouble was Pete, it was UKMO/BBC who were over optimistic!
As for 58 rears ago , I would've hoped that meteorology and the
equipment used would have moved on! By the way when did the Met have
access to radar?

wrote in message
oups.com...
Trouble was Pete, it was UKMO/BBC who were over optimistic!

Some *possible* reasons for this discussed elswhere on the NG.

As for 58 rears ago , I would've hoped that meteorology and the
equipment used would have moved on!

In terms of the technology available, i.e. supercomputers for the forward
atmospheric modelling and subsequent 2-3 day forecasting etc, then yes most
definitely. But at that time, surely the short term (next day) forecasting
depended far more on the summation of the recent past series of actual
ground/ship observations rather than as now, "remote technology"
observations such as satellite and radar which although giving a good idea
of how the broad situation is developing with time, obviously still fall
short on what is actually going to happen in terms of precipitation in
"knife-edge" near freezing situations as so often occurs in the UK.

1947 was way before my time so I have no idea what actually happened then
and whether ground observations *did* indicate what the outlook suggested
and things subsequently changed rapidly over a few hours or whether it was
just forecasting inaccuaracies at the time based on what was generally
available then. It would be an interesting exercise in hindecasting with
modern HadCM3 type models (or whatever else they use for short term
forecasting) to put into a supercomputer, whatever details were available
then in terms of the overall atmospheric circulation in the month or so
preceding and see how it subsequently modelled situations like that of
04-06/03/1947.

By the way when did the Met have access to radar?


I'm not sure of the time it would have become widely used but based on the
developments in radar technology then, I would have thought some form of
experimentation was in place by 1947.

--
Pete

Please take my dog out twice to e-mail

---------------------------------------------------------------
The views expressed above are entirely those of the writer and
do not represent the views, policy or understanding of any
other person or official body.
---------------------------------------------------------------

wrote in message
oups.com...
Trouble was Pete, it was UKMO/BBC who were over optimistic!

Some *possible* reasons for this discussed elswhere on the NG.

As for 58 rears ago , I would've hoped that meteorology and the
equipment used would have moved on!

In terms of the technology available, i.e. supercomputers for the forward
atmospheric modelling and subsequent 2-3 day forecasting etc, then yes most
definitely. But at that time, surely the short term (next day) forecasting
depended far more on the summation of the recent past series of actual
ground/ship observations rather than as now, "remote technology"
observations such as satellite and radar which although giving a good idea
of how the broad situation is developing with time, obviously still fall
short on what is actually going to happen in terms of precipitation in
"knife-edge" near freezing situations as so often occurs in the UK.

1947 was way before my time so I have no idea what actually happened then
and whether ground observations *did* indicate what the outlook suggested
and things subsequently changed rapidly over a few hours or whether it was
just forecasting inaccuaracies at the time based on what was generally
available then. It would be an interesting exercise in hindecasting with
modern HadCM3 type models (or whatever else they use for short term
forecasting) to put into a supercomputer, whatever details were available
then in terms of the overall atmospheric circulation in the month or so
preceding and see how it subsequently modelled situations like that of
04-06/03/1947.

By the way when did the Met have access to radar?


I'm not sure of the time it would have become widely used but based on the
developments in radar technology then, I would have thought some form of
experimentation was in place by 1947.

--
Pete

Please take my dog out twice to e-mail

---------------------------------------------------------------
The views expressed above are entirely those of the writer and
do not represent the views, policy or understanding of any
other person or official body.
---------------------------------------------------------------

wrote in message
oups.com...
Trouble was Pete, it was UKMO/BBC who were over optimistic!

Some *possible* reasons for this discussed elswhere on the NG.

As for 58 rears ago , I would've hoped that meteorology and the
equipment used would have moved on!

In terms of the technology available, i.e. supercomputers for the forward
atmospheric modelling and subsequent 2-3 day forecasting etc, then yes most
definitely. But at that time, surely the short term (next day) forecasting
depended far more on the summation of the recent past series of actual
ground/ship observations rather than as now, "remote technology"
observations such as satellite and radar which although giving a good idea
of how the broad situation is developing with time, obviously still fall
short on what is actually going to happen in terms of precipitation in
"knife-edge" near freezing situations as so often occurs in the UK.

1947 was way before my time so I have no idea what actually happened then
and whether ground observations *did* indicate what the outlook suggested
and things subsequently changed rapidly over a few hours or whether it was
just forecasting inaccuaracies at the time based on what was generally
available then. It would be an interesting exercise in hindecasting with
modern HadCM3 type models (or whatever else they use for short term
forecasting) to put into a supercomputer, whatever details were available
then in terms of the overall atmospheric circulation in the month or so
preceding and see how it subsequently modelled situations like that of
04-06/03/1947.

By the way when did the Met have access to radar?


I'm not sure of the time it would have become widely used but based on the
developments in radar technology then, I would have thought some form of
experimentation was in place by 1947.

--
Pete

Please take my dog out twice to e-mail

---------------------------------------------------------------
The views expressed above are entirely those of the writer and
do not represent the views, policy or understanding of any
other person or official body.
---------------------------------------------------------------

wrote in message
oups.com...
Trouble was Pete, it was UKMO/BBC who were over optimistic!

Some *possible* reasons for this discussed elswhere on the NG.

As for 58 rears ago , I would've hoped that meteorology and the
equipment used would have moved on!

In terms of the technology available, i.e. supercomputers for the forward
atmospheric modelling and subsequent 2-3 day forecasting etc, then yes most
definitely. But at that time, surely the short term (next day) forecasting
depended far more on the summation of the recent past series of actual
ground/ship observations rather than as now, "remote technology"
observations such as satellite and radar which although giving a good idea
of how the broad situation is developing with time, obviously still fall
short on what is actually going to happen in terms of precipitation in
"knife-edge" near freezing situations as so often occurs in the UK.

1947 was way before my time so I have no idea what actually happened then
and whether ground observations *did* indicate what the outlook suggested
and things subsequently changed rapidly over a few hours or whether it was
just forecasting inaccuaracies at the time based on what was generally
available then. It would be an interesting exercise in hindecasting with
modern HadCM3 type models (or whatever else they use for short term
forecasting) to put into a supercomputer, whatever details were available
then in terms of the overall atmospheric circulation in the month or so
preceding and see how it subsequently modelled situations like that of
04-06/03/1947.

By the way when did the Met have access to radar?


I'm not sure of the time it would have become widely used but based on the
developments in radar technology then, I would have thought some form of
experimentation was in place by 1947.

--
Pete

Please take my dog out twice to e-mail

---------------------------------------------------------------
The views expressed above are entirely those of the writer and
do not represent the views, policy or understanding of any
other person or official body.
---------------------------------------------------------------

Just a reminder, while some feel let down by what seems to have been
an
over-optimistic, at least for the snow lovers (like me) forecast for
today,
sometimes forecasts have been significantly under estimated as
detailed
below for events 58 years ago next week:

Have I missed something?:-p

We have today THE BEST SNOW SINCE JANAURY 1997!:-o :-)

Today BEAT February 2001 - but, to be honest, only *JUST*.

Today was GREAT - but it *SHOULD* have been FANTASTIC.

This day will be remembered by me for a long time. Certainly the kids
were out SLEDGING - and in near-FULL FORCE:-o - on my nearby hills this
afternoon - something that I have not seen for some nearly 10 years
now. More snow *is* forecast tonight, though all *seems* to be quiet at
the moment, with what *may* - I pray NOT! - be, in fact, LIGHT RAIN(!)
now coming down, perhaps now starting to aid the slight thawing of the
some 4-inch deep Huddersfield snow!:-o :-(

As for Gavin Partridge and Tom Presutti, well, I am GLAD that they ONLY
got HEAVY RAIN, as I believe in the LAW of KARMA, and that, boys, was
YOUR collective PUNISHMENT for RUINING MY DREAMS back in 2002!!!:-(
:-o :-p :-)

So, in summary:
WHAT A DAY!

2005 is now the BEST winter of the decade so far, now, but only by a
VERY narrow margin from 2001, to be fair.

¡Viva SNOW!
¡Viva la REVOLUTION!:-)

D.