http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

I am sure this will get some discussions going:-)

--
************************************************** **************************
********************************************
Gavin Staples.

Cambridge, UK.

www.gavinstaples.com
site regularly updated


Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not
sure about the former. ~ Albert Einstein


All outgoing emails are checked for viruses by Norton Internet Security
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Only two, let me know when it gets to three.

Jon.

That was good reading, made me feel good :-)

I also voted the cold December spell, although I voted 'No', however the
results suggest 'Yes'. Surely this is based on a wish.

Come February when we've not seen a flake of snow Joe Public will be saying
the "The Met Office got it wrong again", when of course 'we' know they had
nothing to do with either the 'Metcheck' or 'Two'.

Such is life.

I'm wishing as well :-)

Keith (Southend)
--
'Weather Home & Abroad'
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: keith_harris9athotmail.com
"Gavin Staples" wrote in message
...
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

I am sure this will get some discussions going:-)

--

************************************************** **************************
********************************************
Gavin Staples.

Cambridge, UK.

www.gavinstaples.com
site regularly updated


Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm
not
sure about the former. ~ Albert Einstein


All outgoing emails are checked for viruses by Norton Internet Security
Professional 2004.


************************************************** **************************
************************************************** **

That was good reading, made me feel good :-)

I also voted the cold December spell, although I voted 'No', however the
results suggest 'Yes'. Surely this is based on a wish.

Come February when we've not seen a flake of snow Joe Public will be saying
the "The Met Office got it wrong again", when of course 'we' know they had
nothing to do with either the 'Metcheck' or 'Two'.

Such is life.

I'm wishing as well :-)

Keith (Southend)
--
'Weather Home & Abroad'
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: keith_harris9athotmail.com


"Gavin Staples" wrote in message
...
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

I am sure this will get some discussions going:-)

--

************************************************** **************************
********************************************
Gavin Staples.

Cambridge, UK.

www.gavinstaples.com
site regularly updated


Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm
not
sure about the former. ~ Albert Einstein


All outgoing emails are checked for viruses by Norton Internet Security
Professional 2004.


************************************************** **************************
************************************************** **

"Gavin Staples" wrote in message
...
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

I am sure this will get some discussions going:-)

--
************************************************** **************************
********************************************
Gavin Staples.

Cambridge, UK.

www.gavinstaples.com
site regularly updated


Well, I saw a *forecast* of perfect January weather last night, high
pressure from Greenland across to Scandi then onto linking up with the main
Siberian high, low pressure to the South South West of the UK, strong E
winds with troughs repeatedly pushing up from the South giving periods of
extensive precipitation over most of England with temperatures mainly around
0 to -6, the milder air mostly staying the other side of the channel. This
persisted for most of Jan and into Feb, finally completely breaking in
March. Looked just like some of those 1947 charts.

Unfortunately, it wasn't a real forecast, just inside the imagination of a
Pentium 4 CPU as it crunches it's way through my latest Climate Prediction
model. The strangest thing is that (for those familiar with that DC Project)
this "weather forecast" was 3 years into the CO2 warming phase.

--
Pete

Please take my dog out twice to e-mail

---------------------------------------------------------------
The views expressed above are entirely those of the writer and
do not represent the views, policy or understanding of any
other person or official body.
---------------------------------------------------------------

it certainly will fire up discussion, i've already fired off i'm
afraid, in the Metcheck thread

but i've got plenty of rockets in reserve

how ironic that some posters in TWO, Brain's winter forecast thread,
have already taken some cheap shots at uk.sci.weather, so i presume
they will be banned now, for going off topic. The thread was to discuss
Mr Gaze's winter forecast. Now speaking of which, he has been very bold
to issue that winter forecast

First thought i had upon reading it, headline grabbing. Perhaps he
wants to achieve the same effect Mr Bond had back in mid-Oct. Watch the
media / tabloid press over the next few days, to see if they pick up on
Mr Gaze's winter-forecast.

We may well see more 'alarmist' headlines and such like.

But checking out Mr Bond's winter forecast page this morning, i mean i
don't know if he's watered things down, but his forecast seems very
ordinary. Average or only slightly below average temps forecast for
December, and no mention of snow.

He mentions a risk of wintery precip in January, but also hints of a
stormy spell mid--month, with the text starting off with
"colder and wetter than average" - so wet would suggest to me rain
rather than snow, unless i'm reading it wrong

Back to Mr Gaze's winter forecast - does Mr Gaze really need the extra
hits to the website that desperatly?
During last years, major cold spell, i remember the website collapsed
because too many people were trying to access it, and it suffered some
major downtime.

He's doing what he usually does, try to grab the headlines.

Probability of it being totally right - less than 5 percent
probability of Brain's face with egg on it by March 2005 - higher than
90 percent
That's about all the total amount of time i want to spend on this

it certainly will fire up discussion, i've already fired off i'm
afraid, in the Metcheck thread

but i've got plenty of rockets in reserve

how ironic that some posters in TWO, Brain's winter forecast thread,
have already taken some cheap shots at uk.sci.weather, so i presume
they will be banned now, for going off topic. The thread was to discuss
Mr Gaze's winter forecast. Now speaking of which, he has been very bold
to issue that winter forecast

First thought i had upon reading it, headline grabbing. Perhaps he
wants to achieve the same effect Mr Bond had back in mid-Oct. Watch the
media / tabloid press over the next few days, to see if they pick up on
Mr Gaze's winter-forecast.

We may well see more 'alarmist' headlines and such like.

But checking out Mr Bond's winter forecast page this morning, i mean i
don't know if he's watered things down, but his forecast seems very
ordinary. Average or only slightly below average temps forecast for
December, and no mention of snow.

He mentions a risk of wintery precip in January, but also hints of a
stormy spell mid--month, with the text starting off with
"colder and wetter than average" - so wet would suggest to me rain
rather than snow, unless i'm reading it wrong

Back to Mr Gaze's winter forecast - does Mr Gaze really need the extra
hits to the website that desperatly?
During last years, major cold spell, i remember the website collapsed
because too many people were trying to access it, and it suffered some
major downtime.

He's doing what he usually does, try to grab the headlines.

Probability of it being totally right - less than 5 percent
probability of Brain's face with egg on it by March 2005 - higher than
90 percent
That's about all the total amount of time i want to spend on this

Brain's forecast has got instances of "We" in it.
ie
"We expect more snow"

Who's We Brain?, yourself and the pet budgie?

if you're meaning the merry band of moderators that police the forums,
we'll don't forget some of them also moderate forums on 'rival' weather
msg boards as well

You gotta laugh !!

As each event triggers the next sequence I'm more interested to see if he
can get next Monday's forecast right first!

Dave

"keith.r.harris" wrote in message
...
That was good reading, made me feel good :-)

I also voted the cold December spell, although I voted 'No', however the
results suggest 'Yes'. Surely this is based on a wish.

Come February when we've not seen a flake of snow Joe Public will be
saying
the "The Met Office got it wrong again", when of course 'we' know they had
nothing to do with either the 'Metcheck' or 'Two'.

Such is life.

I'm wishing as well :-)

Keith (Southend)
--
'Weather Home & Abroad'
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: keith_harris9athotmail.com




I have been reading quite a lot of information and I think they should get
it right this time, or at least I hope so for their sakes. However, the
stakes have been upped. It is easy to say mild ,and then as we know ,there
are lots of variations on mild as we have seen in the past 10 years or more.
To say it will be cold and it then turns out mild, then whooops, oh
dear. That is being polite.
If this lot get it wrong they will lose an awful lot of credibility. I
am glad I don't run my own forecasting organisation. I would hate to get it
wrong.
I wish TWO the very best of luck.
Most of the evidence for this cold winter forecast is based on a large
and intensifying high pressue about 500 miles west of the Urals. This is
visible now apparetly.
I am sure that many on this ng have seen it as it shows up on some of the
detailed long term atmospheric charts.

Anyway of all us. Lets wait and see and wish the independents the very best
of luck :-)

Gavin.