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#11
December 2nd 04, 09:22 PM
posted to uk.sci.weather
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Next week's weather and further outlook beginning 05/12/04
"Dave.C" wrote in message k... "...with the jet stream sinking south with time. Will, should we note that as maybe something to watch out for ? Victor Would that reinforce zonal conditions in the South but make it colder in the North although still mainly westerly? Or would the synoptics depend on how far South the jet was? Dave Dave if the jet sinks to about 50 deg N then we are in the firing line for some deep lows crossing England, possibly giving snow in the north on their northern flank. But if the jet sinks further south then there is a possibility of the flow splitting and setting up a blocked pattern again, usually behind a deep low which becomes slow moving to the south of us. Things all depend on important details such as perturbations in the jet which are all impossible to predict at medium range (one reason why we see models oscillate in low positions and timings etc.) HTH Will. -- " Visit Haytor meteorological office at http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...met_office.htm " ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet). mailto: www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal and do not necessarily represent those of my employer. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
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#12
December 3rd 04, 12:09 AM
posted to uk.sci.weather
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Next week's weather and further outlook beginning 05/12/04
"Will Hand" wrote in message ... Dave if the jet sinks to about 50 deg N then we are in the firing line for some deep lows crossing England, possibly giving snow in the north on their northern flank. But if the jet sinks further south then there is a possibility of the flow splitting and setting up a blocked pattern again, usually behind a deep low which becomes slow moving to the south of us. Things all depend on important details such as perturbations in the jet which are all impossible to predict at medium range (one reason why we see models oscillate in low positions and timings etc.) Will. Will/Dave, The 12Z GFS solution has a good example of this next weekend as the jet sinks S and bifurcates over S. France - http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/avnpanel1.html (be quick will lapse very soon) Joe |
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#13
December 3rd 04, 08:27 AM
posted to uk.sci.weather
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Next week's weather and further outlook beginning 05/12/04
"Matty H" wrote in message ...
Cheers Will. Looking good for cold weather predicted by Brian Gaze and Metcheck :-) Maybe some snow for us in Bristol by the end of next week. Yeah yeah, i know this is an imposter troll but looking bad for the second cold spell forecast by Metcheck for Dec 4th to Dec 7th  some places are going to see 14, 15 or maybe even 16C Warm snow anyone? |
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#14
December 3rd 04, 08:55 PM
posted to uk.sci.weather
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Next week's weather and further outlook beginning 05/12/04
"Will Hand" wrote in message
... ================================================== =============== Summary valid for Sunday 05/12/04 to Saturday 11/12/04 TOI (time of issue) Thursday 02/12/04 2100 UK local time This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, FAX, and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten Confidence high that next week will gradually see a change to very unsettled, wet, and at times, very mild conditions in all areas. That's what 'we' wanted, Will, but there was a distinct lack of mobility on the 12Z model runs, at least across the south. I know a few that will be nervous wrecks if we have week after week of fog and stratocu mind games :-| Jon. |
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#15
December 3rd 04, 09:06 PM
posted to uk.sci.weather
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Next week's weather and further outlook beginning 05/12/04
"Will Hand" wrote in message ... ================================================== =============== This forecast summary is my *PERSONAL OPINION* of how the weather may unfold next week. I will take no responsibility whatsoever for any actions arising from its use. It is provided freely in the spirit of freedom and the great love for meteorology that I personally enjoy and wish to share freely with others. ================================================== =============== Summary valid for Sunday 05/12/04 to Saturday 11/12/04 TOI (time of issue) Thursday 02/12/04 2100 UK local time This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, FAX, and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten Confidence high that next week will gradually see a change to very unsettled, wet, and at times, very mild conditions in all areas. However, confidence only low to moderate for the details of the change, but reasonably confident of the sequence. A ridge of high pressure should ensure a fine day in most places on Sunday. Mild in freshening west to southwest winds which will become strong in the north. Possibly exceptionally mild in parts of eastern England and eastern Scotland with temperatures perhaps reaching 14 or 15 deg C. Rain from a warm front is likely to spread into western Scotland and northern Ireland later in the day. On Monday a very deep low will be running to the north of Scotland giving westerly gales and possibly storm force winds for a time in the northern Isles. Scotland and northern Ireland will have rain followed by squally showers. Some rain further south over England and Wales but southern Britain likely to stay dry, rather cloudy and mild in moderate west to southwest winds. Tuesday looks like being another fine day in most places, but possibly rain spreading into western areas later. Generally mild with winds easing. Wednesday is the day that significant rain is likely to spread into southern Britain from yet another Atlantic low. All other areas seeing rain too. Turning colder later as winds swing into the northwest bringing showers which will possibly turn wintry over northern hills. A fine and cold start to Thursday with more showers in places exposed to the northwest. Possibly a frost in sheltered southern and eastern parts. However, more rain is likely to spread back in from the west in strengthening southwest winds from another deepening Atlantic low. Turning milder again. On Friday there is a low risk of a major storm crossing the UK. More likely though, is another ordinary depression followed again by a return to colder weather on Saturday in north to northwest winds with showers turning wintry on northern hills. This then sets the scene, until at least the third week, of a generally westerly pattern with spells of mild, wet and windy weather followed by short colder northerly interludes with wintry showers over high ground. Always a risk as well of major storms crossing Britain with the jet stream sinking south with time. Cheers, Will Chief forecaster USW. -- " Visit Haytor meteorological office at http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...met_office.htm " -------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----- A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet). mailto: www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal and do not necessarily represent those of my employer. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----- Is another reputable meteorologist's forecast about to go by the wayside? Sorry Will but your elitest attitude about a recent post may come back to haunt you based on tonight progs! Maybe you will think twice about your future elitest comments? Regards Mr Blowman |
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#16
December 3rd 04, 10:21 PM
posted to uk.sci.weather
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Next week's weather and further outlook beginning 05/12/04
================================================== ================== This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author. Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do. ================================================== ================== Mr Blowman, thanks for that constructive scientific comment. Just looked at the 18Z progs and they look pretty zonal to me after midweek. Mild too I might add. Cheers, Will. -- " Visit Haytor meteorological office at http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...met_office.htm " ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet). mailto: www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal and do not necessarily represent those of my employer. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- "Mr Blowman" S@not here.karoo.co.uk wrote in message ... "Will Hand" wrote in message ... ================================================== =============== This forecast summary is my *PERSONAL OPINION* of how the weather may unfold next week. I will take no responsibility whatsoever for any actions arising from its use. It is provided freely in the spirit of freedom and the great love for meteorology that I personally enjoy and wish to share freely with others. ================================================== =============== Summary valid for Sunday 05/12/04 to Saturday 11/12/04 TOI (time of issue) Thursday 02/12/04 2100 UK local time This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, FAX, and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten Confidence high that next week will gradually see a change to very unsettled, wet, and at times, very mild conditions in all areas. However, confidence only low to moderate for the details of the change, but reasonably confident of the sequence. A ridge of high pressure should ensure a fine day in most places on Sunday. Mild in freshening west to southwest winds which will become strong in the north. Possibly exceptionally mild in parts of eastern England and eastern Scotland with temperatures perhaps reaching 14 or 15 deg C. Rain from a warm front is likely to spread into western Scotland and northern Ireland later in the day. On Monday a very deep low will be running to the north of Scotland giving westerly gales and possibly storm force winds for a time in the northern Isles. Scotland and northern Ireland will have rain followed by squally showers. Some rain further south over England and Wales but southern Britain likely to stay dry, rather cloudy and mild in moderate west to southwest winds. Tuesday looks like being another fine day in most places, but possibly rain spreading into western areas later. Generally mild with winds easing. Wednesday is the day that significant rain is likely to spread into southern Britain from yet another Atlantic low. All other areas seeing rain too. Turning colder later as winds swing into the northwest bringing showers which will possibly turn wintry over northern hills. A fine and cold start to Thursday with more showers in places exposed to the northwest. Possibly a frost in sheltered southern and eastern parts. However, more rain is likely to spread back in from the west in strengthening southwest winds from another deepening Atlantic low. Turning milder again. On Friday there is a low risk of a major storm crossing the UK. More likely though, is another ordinary depression followed again by a return to colder weather on Saturday in north to northwest winds with showers turning wintry on northern hills. This then sets the scene, until at least the third week, of a generally westerly pattern with spells of mild, wet and windy weather followed by short colder northerly interludes with wintry showers over high ground. Always a risk as well of major storms crossing Britain with the jet stream sinking south with time. Cheers, Will Chief forecaster USW. -- " Visit Haytor meteorological office at http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...met_office.htm " -------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----- A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet). mailto: www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal and do not necessarily represent those of my employer. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----- Is another reputable meteorologist's forecast about to go by the wayside? Sorry Will but your elitest attitude about a recent post may come back to haunt you based on tonight progs! Maybe you will think twice about your future elitest comments? Regards Mr Blowman |
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#17
December 4th 04, 12:25 AM
posted to uk.sci.weather
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Next week's weather and further outlook beginning 05/12/04
However, the latest Met Office fax chart
http://129.13.102.67/wz/pics/brack4.gif does seem to show the continental high building in again from the south and east. More fog problems for the south? Cheers, John "Will Hand" wrote in message ... ================================================== ================== This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author. Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do. ================================================== ================== Mr Blowman, thanks for that constructive scientific comment. Just looked at the 18Z progs and they look pretty zonal to me after midweek. Mild too I might add. Cheers, Will. -- " Visit Haytor meteorological office at http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...met_office.htm " -------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----- A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet). mailto: www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal and do not necessarily represent those of my employer. |
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#18
December 4th 04, 09:49 AM
posted to uk.sci.weather
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Next week's weather and further outlook beginning 05/12/04
Mr Hand, scientific or not, based on todays 06z GFS and UKMO 0z I would
suggest Mr Gazes settled beginning to December seems closer to the mark than your recent effort. Regards Mr Blowman "Will Hand" wrote in message ... ================================================== ================== This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author. Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do. ================================================== ================== Mr Blowman, thanks for that constructive scientific comment. Just looked at the 18Z progs and they look pretty zonal to me after midweek. Mild too I might add. Cheers, Will. -- " Visit Haytor meteorological office at http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...met_office.htm " -------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----- A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet). mailto: www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal and do not necessarily represent those of my employer. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----- "Mr Blowman" S@not here.karoo.co.uk wrote in message ... "Will Hand" wrote in message ... ================================================== =============== This forecast summary is my *PERSONAL OPINION* of how the weather may unfold next week. I will take no responsibility whatsoever for any actions arising from its use. It is provided freely in the spirit of freedom and the great love for meteorology that I personally enjoy and wish to share freely with others. ================================================== =============== Summary valid for Sunday 05/12/04 to Saturday 11/12/04 TOI (time of issue) Thursday 02/12/04 2100 UK local time This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, FAX, and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten Confidence high that next week will gradually see a change to very unsettled, wet, and at times, very mild conditions in all areas. However, confidence only low to moderate for the details of the change, but reasonably confident of the sequence. A ridge of high pressure should ensure a fine day in most places on Sunday. Mild in freshening west to southwest winds which will become strong in the north. Possibly exceptionally mild in parts of eastern England and eastern Scotland with temperatures perhaps reaching 14 or 15 deg C. Rain from a warm front is likely to spread into western Scotland and northern Ireland later in the day. On Monday a very deep low will be running to the north of Scotland giving westerly gales and possibly storm force winds for a time in the northern Isles. Scotland and northern Ireland will have rain followed by squally showers. Some rain further south over England and Wales but southern Britain likely to stay dry, rather cloudy and mild in moderate west to southwest winds. Tuesday looks like being another fine day in most places, but possibly rain spreading into western areas later. Generally mild with winds easing. Wednesday is the day that significant rain is likely to spread into southern Britain from yet another Atlantic low. All other areas seeing rain too. Turning colder later as winds swing into the northwest bringing showers which will possibly turn wintry over northern hills. A fine and cold start to Thursday with more showers in places exposed to the northwest. Possibly a frost in sheltered southern and eastern parts. However, more rain is likely to spread back in from the west in strengthening southwest winds from another deepening Atlantic low. Turning milder again. On Friday there is a low risk of a major storm crossing the UK. More likely though, is another ordinary depression followed again by a return to colder weather on Saturday in north to northwest winds with showers turning wintry on northern hills. This then sets the scene, until at least the third week, of a generally westerly pattern with spells of mild, wet and windy weather followed by short colder northerly interludes with wintry showers over high ground. Always a risk as well of major storms crossing Britain with the jet stream sinking south with time. Cheers, Will Chief forecaster USW. -- " Visit Haytor meteorological office at http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...met_office.htm " -------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----- A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet). mailto: www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal and do not necessarily represent those of my employer. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----- Is another reputable meteorologist's forecast about to go by the wayside? Sorry Will but your elitest attitude about a recent post may come back to haunt you based on tonight progs! Maybe you will think twice about your future elitest comments? Regards Mr Blowman |
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#19
December 4th 04, 10:19 AM
posted to uk.sci.weather
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Next week's weather and further outlook beginning 05/12/04
================================================== ================== This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author. Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do. ================================================== ================== Sean ?, I'm not going to get into a virility contest here :-) I issued my forecast on thursday, I suggested a *gradual* change to zonal conditions with lowish confidence on the details of the transition. I admit that it might take a bit longer for the south to become wetter (not Weds as indicated) but certainly in the north the change is there (and we are forecasting nationally after all, not just for SE England !). The other point is the temperature, already at 1100 Saturday my temperature is reading 10.9 deg C so there is no doubt in my mind now that it is going to stay mild for the forseeable future (probably next 2 weeks at least). The Met Office forecast a mild winter, I can see no reason or evidence to doubt that. Maybe Brian Gaze knows something the Met Office doesn't, if that is the case, where is his evidence ? The Met Office could be wrong and Brian may be right (personally I hope that is the case because I love snow) but we will have to wait and see. Finally all my forecasts are on a take it or leave basis done in my own free time (not a lot nowadays) , I do not pretend to be a weather company and I fully expect some to go wrong. Overall though I'm generally quite happy. So what's your problem ? Will. -- " Visit Haytor meteorological office at http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...met_office.htm " ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet). mailto: www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal and do not necessarily represent those of my employer. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- "Mr Blowman" S@not here.karoo.co.uk wrote in message ... Mr Hand, scientific or not, based on todays 06z GFS and UKMO 0z I would suggest Mr Gazes settled beginning to December seems closer to the mark than your recent effort. Regards Mr Blowman "Will Hand" wrote in message ... ================================================== ================== This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author. Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do. ================================================== ================== Mr Blowman, thanks for that constructive scientific comment. Just looked at the 18Z progs and they look pretty zonal to me after midweek. Mild too I might add. Cheers, Will. -- " Visit Haytor meteorological office at http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...met_office.htm " -------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----- A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet). mailto: www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal and do not necessarily represent those of my employer. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----- "Mr Blowman" S@not here.karoo.co.uk wrote in message ... "Will Hand" wrote in message ... ================================================== =============== This forecast summary is my *PERSONAL OPINION* of how the weather may unfold next week. I will take no responsibility whatsoever for any actions arising from its use. It is provided freely in the spirit of freedom and the great love for meteorology that I personally enjoy and wish to share freely with others. ================================================== =============== Summary valid for Sunday 05/12/04 to Saturday 11/12/04 TOI (time of issue) Thursday 02/12/04 2100 UK local time This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, FAX, and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten Confidence high that next week will gradually see a change to very unsettled, wet, and at times, very mild conditions in all areas. However, confidence only low to moderate for the details of the change, but reasonably confident of the sequence. A ridge of high pressure should ensure a fine day in most places on Sunday. Mild in freshening west to southwest winds which will become strong in the north. Possibly exceptionally mild in parts of eastern England and eastern Scotland with temperatures perhaps reaching 14 or 15 deg C. Rain from a warm front is likely to spread into western Scotland and northern Ireland later in the day. On Monday a very deep low will be running to the north of Scotland giving westerly gales and possibly storm force winds for a time in the northern Isles. Scotland and northern Ireland will have rain followed by squally showers. Some rain further south over England and Wales but southern Britain likely to stay dry, rather cloudy and mild in moderate west to southwest winds. Tuesday looks like being another fine day in most places, but possibly rain spreading into western areas later. Generally mild with winds easing. Wednesday is the day that significant rain is likely to spread into southern Britain from yet another Atlantic low. All other areas seeing rain too. Turning colder later as winds swing into the northwest bringing showers which will possibly turn wintry over northern hills. A fine and cold start to Thursday with more showers in places exposed to the northwest. Possibly a frost in sheltered southern and eastern parts. However, more rain is likely to spread back in from the west in strengthening southwest winds from another deepening Atlantic low. Turning milder again. On Friday there is a low risk of a major storm crossing the UK. More likely though, is another ordinary depression followed again by a return to colder weather on Saturday in north to northwest winds with showers turning wintry on northern hills. This then sets the scene, until at least the third week, of a generally westerly pattern with spells of mild, wet and windy weather followed by short colder northerly interludes with wintry showers over high ground. Always a risk as well of major storms crossing Britain with the jet stream sinking south with time. Cheers, Will Chief forecaster USW. -- " Visit Haytor meteorological office at http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...met_office.htm " -------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----- A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet). mailto: www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal and do not necessarily represent those of my employer. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----- Is another reputable meteorologist's forecast about to go by the wayside? Sorry Will but your elitest attitude about a recent post may come back to haunt you based on tonight progs! Maybe you will think twice about your future elitest comments? Regards Mr Blowman |
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#20
December 4th 04, 12:22 PM
posted to uk.sci.weather
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Next week's weather and further outlook beginning 05/12/04
"Mr Blowman" S@not here.karoo.co.uk wrote in message ... Mr Hand, scientific or not, based on todays 06z GFS and UKMO 0z I would suggest Mr Gazes settled beginning to December seems closer to the mark than your recent effort. Regards Mr Blowman Mr Blowman, hah, yes mate. I would rather believed a time-served forecaster who has seen it, and done it etc. We'll come back to the Sainted Mr Gaze's forecasts at the end of December and the end of winter, then we'll see who's got it. You can bet the 12z models runs will be different from the 06z, nothing is surer. Sorry Will, but I think all private companies who produce forecasts should be made to analyse their forecasts at the end of the period, and then APOLOGISE if they get it wrong, rather than trumpet their latest forecasts, having quietly forgotten their failures. In forecasting, "No-one remembers when you get it right, but you aren't allowed to forget if its wrong." Perhaps something to remember. However for those who might be interested... 06Z GFS T+96 & T+120 does show High pressure TRYING to encroach from the east, but t+144 shows it retreating and T+168 shows mild SW'lies... 00Z UKMO T+96 shows high trying to build but by T+120 its retreating, and by T+144 shows sw'lies with a front pushing through. 00Z NOGAPS T+96 shows high trying to build from the east, but with T+120 not available, T+144 suggests a return to sw'lies and possible stormy conditions. 00z ENS T+96 shows s or sw'lies across most or all of the country, T+120, ditto with fronts approaching, T+144 has fronts sat across Ireland with sw'lies across Britain, and T+168 shows the fronts having passed and sw'lies for all. I could go on, but none of the models I have access to on http://www.wetterzentrale.de suggest anything else but zonal unsettled weather out to the end of the coming week. Now I am willing to admit that beyond T+96, these models are best taken with a large sack of finest Cheshire salt, but when they all seem to suggest similar things, perhaps their MIGHT be something in the trend they are suggesting. Sorry Darren for usurping your regular post but thats whats the models that Mr Blowman is quoting are showing. If two days of possibly cooler settled weather for the SE are enough to make the TWO forecast correct, then I despair.... -- Rob Overfield http://www.astrosport02.karoo.net/YorkshireWeather/ "Will Hand" wrote in message ... ================================================== ================== This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author. Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do. ================================================== ================== Mr Blowman, thanks for that constructive scientific comment. Just looked at the 18Z progs and they look pretty zonal to me after midweek. Mild too I might add. Cheers, Will. |
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