Brian at it again!

"Everton Fox in the latest Beeb/MetO monthly outlook says about the weather
next week, "It's not the set up for a white Christmas. Areas of low pressure
will sweep across the UK during this week. Hence the weather will be wet,
windy and mild." Isobel Lang on Countryfile apparently stated the Xmas
weather will be mild and from the south west. These are SENSATIONAL
forecasts from the MetO/Beeb IMO because they have been worded confidently
and have been trying to forecast a single day at long range. This is
something I thought the MetO say is not possible in the UK with current
technology.

Weather Action, Metcheck and TWO have all forecasted a cold spell close to
Xmas with snow in places.

Come Xmas some people will end-up looking ridiculous. Metcheck, TWO and
Weather Action have all over hyped the possibility of a cold outbreak to the
point where it is difficult to drop it off the front page at the last
moment. The Beeb/MetO have spoken with an amazing degree of confidence,
despite the GFS ensembles which for days have been suggesting a cold plunge
during the Xmas period."

More info here
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/wea...TOPIC_ID=33319

Just to add another name to the list, isn't Ian Currie forecasting a White
Christmas this year? For some reason the sceptical members of this ng forget to
mention this in their usual tirades against TWO and Metcheck etc..

"RailwayinnPL20" wrote in message
...
Just to add another name to the list, isn't Ian Currie forecasting a White
Christmas this year? For some reason the sceptical members of this ng
forget to
mention this in their usual tirades against TWO and Metcheck etc..

I'm sure Ian can speak for himself, if he wishes. (I'm personally not aware
of his forecast)
My fluffy dice forecast a grey or green christmas, perhaps you'd like people
to shoot them down too?

I don't understand how anyone on the planet can forecast that there will be
a White Christmas in the UK more than a week beforehand at odds any greater
than 25% (nevermind substantially higher odds and many times earlier - which
the aforementioned sites do most definetly do)
If anyone believes that forecasting the exact weather for a 24 hour period
in the UK at a distance of 1 month is anything other than a game of pure
chance, then they are in cloud cuckoo land!
Its exactly the same as me telling you the precise weather at Hyde park
corner at 11:09am next Monday - to the exact tenth of a degree, exact cloud
cover and exact wind speed.

On the other hand, there may well be something in the broad-brush LRF
approach where by trends over a substantial time period can lead to a
predictable medium or long term pattern - But that predicted pattern is
estimated over a few weeks or a month, not a 12 hour period with all its
intricacies.

It's seriously far better putting your faith in my fluffy dice technique,
rather than the LRF's issued by TWO and Metcheck for specific days so long
beforehand,
At least by doing so, you would entertain the logical chance of
probability.
The TWO and Metchecks techniques are rather like telling everyone you
rolled double sixes, when really you just lied in the hope it would make you
look clever should the slim chance come off.
If it doesn't come about - you can always lie again and claim a double six
next year. One of these times its bound to happen!
Certain BBC presenters are playing a similar dice throwing game, rather
silly! Whilst their forecasts have a greater statistical probablility,
that's really all there is too them, at this distance.

Where's the brandy!
:P

ºººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººº
Alex Stephens Jr
Wishaw, North Lanarkshire, Scotland
N55º47'14", W3º55'15". 360ft/117m amsl
http://www.alex114.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/
ºººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººº

Met O / Beeb are the only reputable organisation,

i don't give a flying pig what the rest are saying. TWO is self
destructing because the kids can't stay
on topic.

Met O / Beeb will be correct on this one.

It doesn't matter if uncle tom cobbly and all say otherwise, they'd
better have the guts to apologise in a few weeks.

I have never laughed so hard when i heard Brian accusing Isobel of
being sensationist on Sunday.
Pot calling kettle black springs to mind.

Go read Brian's winter forecast again, no hint of sensationlist about
it then?
Two faced and Hypocritical, and it doesn't surprise me

NGUK ?

Queenbee wrote:
More info here
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/wea...TOPIC_ID=33319

i have no time to wait for my first message to appear.

just wanted to add the following

Brian also misquoted Isobel on Sunday in his post in the thread linked
above

what was said was:
Probably mild with no snow

Note, the word Probably
And i point out that Brain admits to not actually watching the forecast
itself
You know how dangerous it is to falsely accuse people.
First rule, is to be sure of your facts before spouting off.

I believe Brian owes the lovely Isobel an apology.
I can't believe some people are making degoratory remarks because of
that forecast.
Especially since they are likely to be correct too !!

There's still 11 days left until Christmas.

Wouldn't it be better to hold the criticisms until after the event, and then
the abuse can be directed at the right people ?

There is so much TWO / Metcheck bashing that goes on here these days. If, as
some people claim, this is the place for intellectual weather discussion
(which it WAS a few years ago), then why not talk about the weather instead
of bashing the other forums and organisations ?

Some of you seem disturbingly obsessed with what TWO and Metcheck are
saying - is it really that important? I guess if you've been banned from the
forums then you would feel annoyed - but you obviously still enjoy reading
them.

This newsgroup is a shadow of what it used to be. The proper weather
discussions have been swamped by the abuse and endless criticisms of anyone
who dares to challenge the Met Office (who are always right ??) or anyone
associated with them. So what if Brian Gaze or Metcheck use a bit of
sensationalism ? So what if Brian doesn't reveal his methods ? If it
resulted in the probable ridicule the self proclaimed experts here would
likely dish out then I can't say I blame him for keeping his methods quiet.

This used to be a fascinating and informative newsgroup, but now its just a
few interesting posts buried in amongst the childish sniping, put downs and
stupid "humour".



"LightningPants" wrote in message
oups.com...
i have no time to wait for my first message to appear.

just wanted to add the following

Brian also misquoted Isobel on Sunday in his post in the thread linked
above

what was said was:
Probably mild with no snow

Note, the word Probably
And i point out that Brain admits to not actually watching the forecast
itself
You know how dangerous it is to falsely accuse people.
First rule, is to be sure of your facts before spouting off.

I believe Brian owes the lovely Isobel an apology.
I can't believe some people are making degoratory remarks because of
that forecast.
Especially since they are likely to be correct too !!

John, while there is something in what you say, if you look at this thread
the only contributors supporting this view are relatively new. There may be
quite a lot of posts but only a very few protagonists. However there is a
large contingent, like myself, who really don't see forecasts or models past
a week as being based on proven science, and we often say so - which may
come across as anti TWO, Metcheck, and UKMO when they do the same.

Dave
"John" wrote in message
...
There's still 11 days left until Christmas.

Wouldn't it be better to hold the criticisms until after the event, and
then
the abuse can be directed at the right people ?

There is so much TWO / Metcheck bashing that goes on here these days. If,
as
some people claim, this is the place for intellectual weather discussion
(which it WAS a few years ago), then why not talk about the weather
instead
of bashing the other forums and organisations ?

Some of you seem disturbingly obsessed with what TWO and Metcheck are
saying - is it really that important? I guess if you've been banned from
the
forums then you would feel annoyed - but you obviously still enjoy reading
them.

This newsgroup is a shadow of what it used to be. The proper weather
discussions have been swamped by the abuse and endless criticisms of
anyone
who dares to challenge the Met Office (who are always right ??) or anyone
associated with them. So what if Brian Gaze or Metcheck use a bit of
sensationalism ? So what if Brian doesn't reveal his methods ? If it
resulted in the probable ridicule the self proclaimed experts here would
likely dish out then I can't say I blame him for keeping his methods
quiet.

This used to be a fascinating and informative newsgroup, but now its just
a
few interesting posts buried in amongst the childish sniping, put downs
and
stupid "humour".



"LightningPants" wrote in message
oups.com...
i have no time to wait for my first message to appear.

just wanted to add the following

Brian also misquoted Isobel on Sunday in his post in the thread linked
above

what was said was:
Probably mild with no snow

Note, the word Probably
And i point out that Brain admits to not actually watching the forecast
itself
You know how dangerous it is to falsely accuse people.
First rule, is to be sure of your facts before spouting off.

I believe Brian owes the lovely Isobel an apology.
I can't believe some people are making degoratory remarks because of
that forecast.
Especially since they are likely to be correct too !!