Hi John,

I think the Look North forecasters got it right, but there was still
conflicting information coming from the National forecasts and weather
warnings from the Mef Office. It was plain to see that the only places that
would get appreciable snow were those sticking out into the North Sea,
exposed directly to the showers. I agree that the warning issued in the
middle of last week was pretty good, but can't quite understand how a bunch
of severe weather warnings issued yesterday could be so wide of the mark.

Do we blame the media for the BBC forecast being overhyped?
--
Dave in Ferryhill, Co. Durham, UK. For webcam, look to
http://www.napier.eclipse.co.uk/weather/sample.htm


"John Whitby" wrote in message
...
Overall very good early advice, given that the Warning was issued last
Wednesday. It surely is impossible to forecast the precise wind flow
direction that far ahead. As Dave suggested in his mail the main 'error'
was
the fact that the flow was northerly and not north-easterly. A veer of 20
to 30 degrees would have swept the snow showers across to the Pennines.
In
York we had between 1 and 2cm on a weak trough between about 3 and 4am.
The
position and intensity of troughs moving south in an unstable northerly
flow
is often the main problem is this situation.
However I do think that some of the TV forecasts on BBC 1, News 24, and
locally on Look North, presented by Met Office forecasters) were OTT at
times even as late as yesterday morning. I suspect many viewers will this
morning think the snow was 'overhyped'
Regards
John
--
York,
North Yorkshire.
(Norman Virus Protected)

"Martin Rowley" wrote in message
...
So, how did it fare ..... here is the original Advanced Warning posted
here last Wednesday:

" Here is an ADVANCED WARNING of Heavy Snow affecting Northern Scotland,
Eastern Scotland, North
East England, South East England and East Anglia AND Lincolnshire.
Issued by the Met Office at 10:29 on Wednesday, 17 December 2003.

Strong northerly winds are forecast by the Met Office to bring frequent
and blustery snow showers on Sunday, particularly to Northern and
Eastern
coastal counties.
There is a good deal of doubt regarding the severity of the weather but
there is the potential on Sunday for heavy snow showers to be driven
well
inland from the east
coast on the strong to gale force northeasterly winds. Several cm of
snow
is possible locally
with some drifting which could lead to widespread disruption to
transport.
Transmitted by the Met Office. at 10:29 on Wednesday 17 December"

Looking at the traffic reports and listening to the radio (2 and 5) this
morning, this warning seems to have worked out very well. The
accompanying % probability map (not shown here) indicated 40-50%
probability of disruption: given the long lead time, this was
*excellent* guidance and enabled people to plan well ahead.

Several roads are currently blocked, or PWC, due combination of
snow/ice/frozen slush in the areas mentioned above.

Note, however, that this (and subsequent) warnings did not promise a
'white hell' for the entire country. The Met Office are not to be blamed
for that: this is a 'media' problem (& I include the BBC - they are no
better), not a Met Office problem. Once the warning is issued, it is
very difficult to control how it is interpreted & presented.
snip
Don't confuse the media hype with the outcome - there was *never* any
indication of significant snowfall away from the areas outlined in the
various warnings.
snip
Martin.

--
FAQ & Glossary for uk.sci.weather at:-
http://homepage.ntlworld.com/booty.weather/uswfaqfr.htm