"Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote in message
.. .
snip
1. Equally as important as the warning itself -- and hardly
anyone else in the thread has mentioned this -- was the clear
expression
of uncertainty. This is essential with a 96-hour lead time, but it is
not
something forecasters do with any consistency. However, this makes
the level of detail provided in the early warning inappropriate.

.... yes a valid point - presenting a "broad target" to aim at;
MeteoFrance seem to do somewhat better at this from the occasions I have
viewed their web site.

2. The more recent warnings -- and many warnings in general --
betray a lack of understanding of how information is absorbed by the
general public (and, by extension, by the news media). For instance,
semantically, "up to 15cm of snow" means anything between zero and
15cm. snip

.... I used to try and get the Chief's (if they asked), to put a *lower
figure*, and then a phrase something like ..... "but stronger gusts in a
few places", or, in the context of the current event " generally 5 to 10
cm, but some places experiencing frequent and heavy showers will have
greater accumulations" etc. Once a 'number' (or wind direction) is
placed in the text, then the highest number mentioned, almost by
default, becomes the 'headline' figure. You are quite right to point
this out, and this is not something that is taught to staff when they
undergo training etc.

Martin.