Thankyou Will for both your informative and honest reply. I will be
tuning in to your update when it appears.

What I like about Joe's column is he gives an indication of any change
or trend in the patterns, without saying it's going to snow in the
afternoon in London in three weeks time, anyone who say's that you
can't realy take seriously.

Merry Christmas to you :-)

Keith (Southend)

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On Mon, 22 Dec 2003 21:42:31 -0000, "Will"
wrote:

Hi Keith,

I've thought about that. If I'm sober and not weighed down too much by food I'll
do my forecast on Xmas Day evening, otherwise it will be Boxing Day.

I'm serious about more snow late next weekend into next week (as per my last
trend forecast). The longwave pattern looks like retrogressing and the next
trough extension will henceforth be further west, putting us well and truly in
the cold air trough, which means it will last longer. Ensembles are now trending
that way and getting increasing support from the main deterministic models.

As for Joe, I respect his undoubtded knowledge of the global circulation and
atmospheric dynamics. I'm not a fan of his column, purely because of the way it
is written, but I can understand where he is coming from and his thoughts are
very soundly based IMO.

Cheers,

Will.