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Old January 5th 04, 06:44 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
Darren Prescott Darren Prescott is offline
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First recorded activity by Weather-Banter: Jul 2003
Posts: 874
Default Today's model interpretation (5/01/03)

Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Friday. Issued 0644z,
5/01/04.

ECMWF: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif
A secondary low lies to the west of Scotland, leading to WSW'lies and
SW'lies over the UK. A series of shallow secondary lows lies to the west and
by T+144 one of these deepens to the west of Ireland, bringing southerlies
to Scotland and WSW'lies or SW'lies elsewhere. By T+168 lows lie to the ENE
and WNW of the UK, with westerlies and NW'lies as a result.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
The Met Office run shows a secondary low over southern Scotland, with
westerlies or WSW'lies over most of the UK. The WSW'lies and westerlies
continue at T+144.

GFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.gif
Westerlies cover the UK, with several small secondary lows to the west
orbiting the main Icelandic low. One of those secondary lows moves across
Scotland at T+120, bringing light winds there and westerlies or WNW'lies
elsewhere. 850hPa temperatures range from -2C over NW Scotland to +5C over
SW England. By T+144 the main low lies to the north of the UK, with
westerlies for Northern Ireland and SW'lies elsewhere. The winds become
NW'lies at T+168 as a weak ridge moves eastwards towards the UK. The NW'lies
continue on day 8 and become WNW'lies on day 9. By day 10, there are signs
of a change as the Azores High ridges northwards to the Greenland High,
bringing northerlies to the far north of Scotland. The rest of the UK lies
under westerlies.

GEM: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1201.gif
Low pressure covers the Faroes, with strong westerlies over the UK. 850hPa
temperatures vary from -1C over much of the UK to +2C over SW England.
WSW'lies and SW'lies cover the UK at T+144, as the low fills and moves
slowly westwards.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
The Japanese run shows a deep low to the south of Iceland leading to SW'lies
across the UK. 850hPa temperatures range from -2C over northern Scotland to
+6C over SW England. The winds become SSW'lies at T+144 due to a secondary
low west of Scotland, which then merges with the main low to the ENE of
Scotland at T+168. The result is strong westerlies for all, followed by
SW'lies and WSW'lies on day 8 as yet another low deepens to the south of
Iceland.

In summary, the models show, yet again, a prolonged unsettled spell for all.