I would say the type of weather you describe, is no longer possible in the
UK... for the time being anyway.
First things first, we need this rapid rise in temperature during January
and February to halt. Can't see that happening for a few years yet, maybe
never considering GW.

"Tom" wrote in message
...
There has been a sudden buzz of interest over a forthcoming cold snap
starting around the 15th January.

I have spent the last couple of hours studying the latest GFS, ECMWF, UK
MET, NO GAPs runs. I have also had a quick look at the pending cold snap
over the United States with a little help of the ETA and RSM Ensembles.

Consideration of the jet stream and SST's has been included.

The majority of models are starting to jump in line with the GFS output.
Recently the GFS has been very out-of-touch with other models however,
over
the past week I believe it's starting to stabilise a little.

If this severe cold snap does occur, the heaviest of any snowfall will be
confined to the Eastern side of England, East Anglia and South-East
England
(as normal in these situations).

Cold weather continues up to the end of the latest runs with steady stream
of North-Easterly winds occasionally veering Easterly.

There are three other points that draw my conclusion of a severe cold snap
from mid-January:

. Artic Oscillation diving off the scale
. NAO turning increasing negative
. PNA turning positive

So all in all, a strong possibility of a severe cold snap for the Eastern
half of England in the coming weeks.
--
Tom
Danbury, Essex (107m)


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