"Martin Rowley" wrote in message
...
This development is going to be very difficult to get right looking at
the broad-scale pattern. With the models predicting jet-strength of at
least 180 kn, the potential for gusts 80 to 90 kn are quite credible.
The difficulty is judging the phasing of the low-level baroclinic
disturbance (given the multiple possibilities offered by the models)
with the upper forcing (due to the jet structure - a good way south
atm), and I suspect that even 18 hr or less ahead, things will still be
uncertain. The best anyone can do is to prepare, and check closely with
short-range forecasts as we get nearer - but expect marked fluctuations
in advice as new data comes to hand. No doubt December 1999 will be
uppermost in the minds of MeteoFrance! (And remember, we [UK] only just
missed out on those events.)

Martin.

Spot on, as ever, Martin. The model variability is causing quite a few
headaches
but the potential is there as reflected in the 12Z GM and many of the
ensembles.
On this occasion the low on the finalised T+72 was modified and taken
slightly further
south.

Before all that the NW looks like it will take a bit of battering tomorrow
night
http://imkpc3.physik.uni-karlsruhe.de/pics/brack0a.gif
with forecast gradient winds are in excess of 60KT.

A busy day what with all that and BBC SW/David Braine in doing a bit for the
Spotlight programme
which went out earlier. I believe they may show some of it on News24 and
possibly some other footage
on Sunday they recorded for Countryfile.

Cheers,
Jon.