"Martin Rowley" wrote in message
...
The difficulty is judging the phasing of the low-level baroclinic
disturbance (given the multiple possibilities offered by the models)
with the upper forcing (due to the jet structure - a good way south
atm),

Martin,

Time to show my ignorance of the science!

What exactly do you mean by the above. I understand the jetstream is moving
the whole thing at 180kts. Is the phasing the 'where and by what amount' the
low will deepen at the surface ? and please clarify 'upper forcing'

Thanks

Phil