On Sat, 10 Jan 2004 18:44:16 +0000, Mike Tullett
wrote:

On Sat, 10 Jan 2004 18:13:24 +0000, Norman Lynagh wrote in


Hi Norman,

The ECM has certainly put the spanner in the works -

The 12z GFS run gives mean winds only up to 17 knots on Monday for this
location. It's all on a bit of a knife edge.

Fascinating indeed. I have just looked at the 12z GFS run and what stands
out for me is the incredibly tight thermal gradient (as seen by the 500mb
temps superimposed on the surface progs), around 45 to 50 deg to our south
west.

Yes, today's 12Z MetOffice "Fax" for 12Z Monday looks scary for the
North French coast - 80Kts near there, according to the geostrophic
wind scale on the full size pdf from Avbrief).
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1.html

And the real action (if it happens) looks just a little bit *too
close* to the South Coast for my comfort. At least the models are
still diverging to some extent!

--
Dave
Fareham