In message , Alan Duckers
writes
Indeed Will, Sat Imagery during the day has always looked much more
"angry"
than the relatively tame 12Z output. There were very few ship obs in the
region at midday and this may have undely affected the models.
I notice that on a sequence of hourly WV images that a marked dry slot is
now appearing in the region of the left exit, very near the "suggested"
centre ... meaning more rapid cyclogenesis may be appearing.

Hi Paul,
It's a pity we still do not have the line of weather ships that used to be
stationed in the Atlantic. I'm sure there used to be one at 50N 20W which
would have assisted the forecasted track of tomorrows low,
best regards,
Alan

Station "Juliette" was at 52.5N 20.0W. Station "Kilo" was at 47N 17W.

I see that the 12z Met Office mesoscale run has Monday's low as a
"Channel runner" somewhat shallower than predicted earlier. If this
turns out to be correct southern England will have light winds. The
issued progs take the track much further north, resulting in the
warnings of very strong winds for the south. I don't envy the Chief
Forecaster in Exeter tonight.

The 12z mesoscale has Tuesday's low much more threatening than Monday's.

Interesting times.

Norman.
(delete "thisbit" twice to reply)
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
Chalfont St Giles
England