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Old January 12th 04, 03:14 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
Andrew Bond Andrew Bond is offline
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First recorded activity by Weather-Banter: Nov 2003
Posts: 66
Default A bit of verification


"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message
...

LOL, no comment on the superb effort with the low to the east of Iceland

?!

Oops, sorry Jon, a fantastic forecast for the intensity and location of the
low.

Presumably you've got the detailed verification to back up that statement,
Andrew ?


I'm afraid I haven't, I can only go on having seen the models every day for
the past 5 years and IMHO (perhaps I should have said that earlier) that the
GFS is better at mesoscale features.

It was only a few years ago the MetO GM was deemed (by the NWS) the best
model throughout the entire hurricane forecast season.


Jon, that was a few years ago, all the models have changed and developed
since then, I'm talking 2004. I personally feel that around 5 years ago, the
UKMO model took a huge step backwards and has not recovered since, perhaps I
am wrong with this.

I simply feel that at the moment the GFS stands head and shoulders above the
UKMO output, but that is a personal view and I would personally love to see
the opposite being true.

But, like I said, what does the Met Office need in order to do this? I feel
with all the cut-backs, closing of reporting stations etc, the situation is
likely to get worse before it gets better.

Regards,

Andrew