"Will" wrote in message
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This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
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OK I put my hands up and say I WAS WRONG to emphasise the severe weather
so
much.

Would I do it again given the same evidence - probably.

The evidence was there, it tracked further south, the jet wasn't quite as
strong
as expected, further details not in evidence, eg. lack of clear water
vapour dry
slot yesterday evening prob implying later deepening. GFS did well, but
hindsight is a wonderful thing.

I made a mistake and I'll make many more no doubt, but I'll still get more
right
than wrong !

Humbling cheers,

Will.
--

Well, IMHO, all of those that said "beware there could be a big problem on
its way" are in the right.

Surely if there had been loss of life, severe damage to buildings that this
could have caused and no-one said anything then it would be "what
hurricane?" all over again?

The weather is an unpredictable beast.

Everyone does their best, the seers, the scryers, the seeweeders, the
computer models, but at the end of the day, Mother Nature is gonna do it her
way and thats that. No refunds, no changing of minds, the editors decision
is final.

For the most part the forecasters get it close (and sometimes they get it
right), but this was an instance where the possibilities never occured.

But, and this is a key but to all forecasting techniques

Can the reason it wasnt right be discerned and learned from?

All I can say is well done Will - at least we were prepared - its not crying
wolf as some have suggested, as from what I have read there is the
possibility of something nasty tonight too.

Si (a very interested observer of the weather rather than a forecaster)