Will" wrote in message
...

OK I put my hands up and say I WAS WRONG to emphasise the severe weather
so
much.

Yes I do think you were rather OTT in way you presented your analysis...

Would I do it again given the same evidence - probably.

Each to his own style....

The evidence was there, it tracked further south, the jet wasn't quite as
strong
as expected, further details not in evidence, eg. lack of clear water
vapour dry
slot yesterday evening prob implying later deepening. GFS did well, but
hindsight is a wonderful thing.
I made a mistake and I'll make many more no doubt, but I'll still get more
right
than wrong !

No I don't think you made a 'mistake'. ( If the wrong answer is arrived at
in a calculation, then that IS a mistake). If you or the workers at Exeter
examine all the data and evidence available and using the best of their
considerable skill and experience produce a forecast which in the event is
wrong to some degree then no 'mistake' has been made. With no hindsight and
given the same initial data again, the same forecast would probably result.
As has been said 'ad nauseum' in this NG ...PRESENTATION is the main problem
as I see it. The Met Office can and should improve on this aspect. The
Media I'm afraid are beyond hope and will probably only get worse.
Sorry to be pedantic....
Best wishes
John
--
York,
North Yorkshire.
(Norman Virus Protected)

"