In message , Will
writes

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This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
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Norman, clearly you are correct when you say that the 12Z runs were
*apparently*
ignored. But the Chief forecaster on duty must have had his reasons as
one would
ignore model data at your peril, particularly when it is backed up by
the GFS or
other models. Perhaps he was "twitchy" (as I was) about the low developing in a
data sparse area, the obvious developmental satellite imagery and the analysed
160 knot plus jet ?

Will.

As I said, hindsight is a wonderful thing I am very glad that I was
not the Chief Forecaster on duty having to deal with it in real time.

As someone who started his career in the days of "pencil and rubber"
forecasting I get some satisfaction out of seeing that the problems of
operational forecasting have not yet been completely cracked

Norman
(delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail)
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
Chalfont St Giles
England