...The best way to improve forecasts in these situations is either to 1)
improve your estimate of the inital state of the atmosphere at that time
-this can be done through an improved data assimilation system or by
targetting extra observations to be taken in this region. or 2) to take
account of the uncertainty through using an ensemble forecast...
Admirable sentiments overall-
caveats-
recent work has suggested that the important factors in errors out to 7-10 days may not be chaos but
ongoing deficits in the models .ie there's still lots of room for imrovements.
Ensemble forecasts do not always pick up outlying ,severe events.What do you invest yr
computational/financial resources in-
improving model resolution,ensemble forecasting,and/or data aquisition and assimilation?

--
regards,
david
(add 17 to waghorne to reply)