"TudorHgh" wrote in message
...
. Now, when forecasters were
forecasters, ( and the ordinary chap on the bench could read AND
understand
an article in the QJ ) Mr C.K.M. Douglas would think to himself ' I have
seen one exactly like that, 25 years ago, which turned right at the last
moment '

. One of the truisms
I have learnt since is that an unusual synoptic situation suddenly appears
for
the first time, repeats itself a few times over a period of a month or
two, and
is then never seen again. This can fool anyone, as has happened just now.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

Interesting comment. I can recall occasions when near 50 year events
occurred quite close together (in time) and then nothing like it for yonks.
(Can Norman or Philip comment here) So what is the Ingredient X that is
missing from the forecaster's toolkit. We have seen learned discussions
about jet stream streaks, forcing, PV, WV patterns,mid level troughs, all of
which must have been churned around by the Exeter computer, but the wrong
answer came out.
Apart from the spectaculars, I feel there are a good number of smaller
errors at say, +72 hrs, a 10 to 15 knot wind error over the sea could make
an important difference to a significant wave height forecast. There are (or
were) critical offshore works that needed near perfection, although I
suppose industry and many others have built themselves out of weather
dependency . keith chaplin

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