In message , Keith
Chaplin writes

"TudorHgh" wrote in message
...
. Now, when forecasters were
forecasters, ( and the ordinary chap on the bench could read AND
understand
an article in the QJ ) Mr C.K.M. Douglas would think to himself ' I have
seen one exactly like that, 25 years ago, which turned right at the last
moment '

. One of the truisms
I have learnt since is that an unusual synoptic situation suddenly appears
for
the first time, repeats itself a few times over a period of a month or
two, and
is then never seen again. This can fool anyone, as has happened just now.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

Interesting comment. I can recall occasions when near 50 year events
occurred quite close together (in time) and then nothing like it for yonks.
(Can Norman or Philip comment here)

Without digging very deep I can't quote any specific examples but I
agree that it is not unusual for extreme events to occur fairly close
together, far enough apart to seem independent but probably linked in
some way.

Another interesting point is that extreme weather events often result
from situations that don't look like the "big one". For example, the
biggest waves in the North Sea are often not associated with the worst
windstorms. Heavy snowfalls on low ground in this country often come
"unexpectedly" in situations that are not obvious snow producers.
Yesterday's snow in the Midlands was a not-very-good example of this.
The heavy snow of early December 1981 to the north of London was a
better example. We all have out pet examples.

Norman.
(delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail)
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
Chalfont St Giles
England