,So what is the Ingredient X that is
missing from the forecaster's toolkit. We have seen learned discussions
about jet stream streaks, forcing, PV, WV patterns,mid level troughs, all of
which must have been churned around by the Exeter computer, but the wrong
answer came out.
I think part of the answer is that we don't fully understand frontal wave cyclogenesis ie we don't
have a full conceptual model of the dynamics,why some frontal cyclones 'bomb' and others don't.NWP
output and satellite imagery has to be interpreted with a good model and understanding of the
processes at work.Work on the FASTEX database will no doubt go some way to help,


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regards,
david
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