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Old August 1st 03, 01:09 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
nzuri nzuri is offline
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First recorded activity by Weather-Banter: Jul 2003
Posts: 8
Default In the news: How the stratosphere holds the key to long-range weather forecasts

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/...p?story=429448

also a bit about the coming "heatwave"

Thanks for that - it reminded me about a question which I've often wondered
about. I assume that the mathematical modeling which underlies forecasting
includes constant comparison between what the models suggest will happen and
what actually transpires.

Does the Met Office - or anyone else - publish information about the
reliability of its forecasts in terms of differences between forecast and
actual conditions? If so, are they available on the web? I appreciate -
or at least guess - that there's a difference between a forecaster's
interpretation and the detail churned out by the machines.


Andrew