"Paul Freeman" wrote in message
...
Does that mean there is more potential for heavier showers? (Albeit
probably
of sleety stuff if we can't drop the temperatures low enough)...

Paul

No doubt there is that potential, What the showers will be of though and how
the temps will generally modify the lower layers of any cold air, I just
don't know. Have a look at:

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/climo.html

and navigate around in there to the archives of SST anomalies (admittedly,
only monthly means before 1996).

The monthly means for months *preceding* notable Easterly spells (Feb 1986,
Jan 1987 and Dec/Jan 1996/7), ie Jan 1986 etc all show a N sea mainly with
a -ve anomaly.

However for two other notable cold spells (Jan 1985 and Dec/Jan 1995/6),
like now, the anomaly was +ve. Also, I noted that in Jan 1986, the Arctic
Ice did not come as far south along the E Greenland coast as now (assuming
that element is accurate on those maps). Perhaps that influenced the
subsequent blocked set up.

The non-event of Dec 2002 occured with patches of N Sea water with -ve and
others with +ve anomaly

So perhaps I, with my very limited knowledge of the interaction of SST's
with airmasses, am overestimating what the effect will be. We can only wait
and see if it's all forgotten about by March or becomes a memorable event.

--
Pete

Please take my dog out twice to e-mail

---------------------------------------------------------------
The views expressed above are entirely those of the writer and
do not represent the views, policy or understanding of any
other person or official body.
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"Pete B" wrote in message
...
"Keith (Southend)" wrote in message
...
With high pressure holding over Scandinavia here a few maximum temps
from the area for today 20th January. This is crutial if a NE wind
decides to head our way.

Oslo -8.6°c
Bergen -2.0°c
Sundsvall -10.1°c
Stockholm -3.9°c
Helsinki -8.5°c
Copenhagen +0.5°c

Keith (Southend)

I wouldn't think that those combined with the present SST's in the North
Sea
would give much of a bite to a N Easterly by the time it reached the UK.
IIRC, in Jan 1987 just before the real cold hit the UK, the mid day temp
in
Helsinki on Fri 9th Jan was around -33C!!. Please correct me someone if
I'm
wrong. My actual archived records only go back to 1990 but that was
noted
individually at the time because of its severity.

Still, an Arctic blast into Scandi would bring them down pretty
suddenly.