What I've noticed recently with GFS is that it is often the first to suggest
a change, but then tends to wobble about mid forecast, before
re-establishing itself closer to time. I've already been to the shop to get
wellies for the kids, so here's hoping!

Shaun Pudwell.

"max" wrote in message
...
On Thu, 22 Jan 2004 12:11:39 -0000, "Succorso"
wrote:


Nobody ever "knows" - so personally I just sit tight and wait and see. I
use
the forecast models merely as a directional pointer (eg, "Consensus is it
will turn colder next week") because that's about all these advance
models
are good for.

Exactly. I personally usually ignore forecasts completely as they are
invariably wrong, especially in situations like this. It's much more
fun to just 'wait and see' - no disappointments then, and some nice
surprises if the weather turns out the way you want it (whether it's
rain, snow, sun, heat, cold, whatever).

Having said that, I've been following this potential cold weather with
some interest as it's piqued my curiosity to see if the forecasts are
right (for a change!). Also, as an 'ex'* snow lover, it's also
fascinating to see the current snow lovers get all over-excited and
then sink into despondency and gloom when it looks like it will be
mild after all. Oh, and the resulting bitchy fighting is rather
amusing to watch too.

* I say an 'ex' snow lover as I used to get pretty excited by the
stuff in my youth as well, but as you get older and more responsible
you see all the problems it causes for people and wildlife so you
don't welcome it as much. I still think it looks great, but otherwise
it's a pain!