Yes, Len, I think you a correct. Sometimes we get convinced by our own hype,
but in this world, just wishing for something does not make it happen. And
forecast models are based on a sketchy knowledge of the starting conditions,
with more than 90% of grid points containing no real data, plus numerous
fixes and fudges to take account of processes that are too small for the
models to handle. Caution is the watchword. Charts for T+24 even have been
known to be wrong, and as the lead time increases, so does the error rate.
Add to that the possibility of human intervention in some model output, and
you increase the uncertainty further.

--
Bernard Burton
Wokingham, Berkshire, UK.


Satellite images at:
www.btinternet.com/~wokingham.weather/wwp.html
"Weatherman" wrote in message
...
Checking the GFS again this morning, it appears that the main bulk of the
extreme cold seems to have moved East aligning down the North sea and to
the
East of the UK with green colours over the West.
I am still unsure as to whether this will be as severe as first thought
but
only time will tell.

Regards. Len.