Although GFS did hint at this cold spell at 15 days and were consistent for
it coming up to about 7 days.

I was at a seminar not long ago which showed how the models became more and
reliable as you got closer to the event except for a little wobble for some
reason around day 4. Maybe we have seen have the 4 day wobblys

Stan
"Brendan DJ Murphy" wrote in message
...
I am beginning to only trust GFS for 3 days at the most. Anything more
than that and they really
haven't got a clue.

--
Brendan DJ Murphy
Rayleigh, Essex, 51:34N 0:36E 30m asl
Castle Point Astronomy Club http://www.cpac.org.uk


"Dave. C" wrote in message
...
I have to say I am starting to find it a bit tedious that every 6 hours
(usually GFS based) someone posts that it is going to be one of the
coldest
spells for years or that it's completely collapsing. How many times do
the
experts have to say that models are an indication of the trends and any
one
taken in isolation can only be that at best.
FACT: It will be cold next week.
FACT: It will most likely snow in lots of places
FACT: It will probably breakdown at some stage in the next 1-6 weeks!

Much more detail is pure conjecture, so let's be patient, look at the
charts
and watch the forecasts but cut out the silly stuff!

Dave