On Tue, 27 Jan 2004 20:18:48 -0000, Victor West wrote in


Why is it that charts, which were in agreement for severe weather less than
a week ago, have turned out incorrect whilst the above are more than likely
to be correct?!

My view on those charts is they were pretty accurate in general synoptic
developments. Any errors were more in their interpretation and just how
cold it would be - and just how much snow there would be. The fine detail
just isn't possible at the time scale.

The forecasts for next week are pointing to unsettled and milder weather -
but how many of us are going through them with a fine tooth comb, as many
were this time last week. We just accept there will be a change at the
weekend without any real detail - such as was wanted for this week.

In my view the models have done a good job at setting the scene for this
week from a long time ago. Mind you we have learned a new law - Dave
Ludlow's - look at the 850 mb temps on the GFS model, for the south of
England and add on about 4C:-)

--
Mike 55.13°N 6.69°W Coleraine posted to uk.sci.weather 27/01/2004 20:42:04 UTC