Advance warning: I'm leaving at 5:30AM to help out with the wolf stand at
the Highclere Show tomorrow, so I won't
be issuing an analysis.

The runs are mixed again, although they show low pressure never far away
from the UK. As usual, the north of the UK looks to be significantly wetter
than the south over the coming week, with temperatures gradually rising for
all as the week progresses.

Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for 12z on Tuesday. Issued 0603z,
28/05/05.

ECMWF: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Recm1201.gif
High pressure covers Iceland, with low pressure to the SW. Easterlies and
SE'lies are the result, followed by further easterlies at T+144. By T+168 a
ridge brings yet more easterlies to Northern Ireland and Scotland, with
lighter winds elsewhere due to a col.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
The Met Office chart shows low pressure over Ireland, leading to easterlies
for Scotland and Northern Ireland, with southerlies and SW'lies elsewhere.
The low becomes a trough over England and Wales at T+144, leaving
northerlies and easterlies elsewhere.

GFS: http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/pslv_frame.htm
The UK lies under low pressure (centred over southern Scotland), with
easterlies for Scotland and westerlies elsewhere. 850hPa temperatures vary
from freezing over northern Scotland to +5C over much of England. The low
moves slowly ENE'wards at T+144, resulting in westerlies for many areas and
NE'lies for northern Scotland. A col covers Scotland and Northern Ireland at
T+168, with a weak ridge and SW'lies or westerlies elsewhere. The ridge
builds as a trough crosses Scotland on day 8, with SW'lies for much of the
UK. Day 9 sees a low deepen to the SW, bringing southerlies followed by
stronger SW'lies and NW'lies as the low deepens over Scotland on day 10.
Ensembles: http://217.160.75.104/pics/MT8_London_ens.png
The London ensembles show 850hPa temperatures falling sharply today, with a
brief cool spell for the very end of the month. Beyond that the mean rises
slowly, although by the 5th June the runs are all over the place. Spikes in
precipitation occur tomorrow and on Wednesday.

GEM: http://www.meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
The Canadian run shows a trough over much of the UK from a low to the west
and this leads to easterlies for Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern
England, with WSW'lies elsewhere. The parent low moves swiftly eastwards and
lies over the North Sea at T+144. Winds are westerlies over England and
Wales by then, with brisk NE'lies elsewhere.

GME/DWD:
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...280000_120.gif
A ridge covers much of the UK, with southerlies for Northern Ireland from an
Atlantic low. The low moves eastwards at T+144 and extends a trough over
Scotland; this leads to westerlies for most.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
A col covers the UK, with light winds for all. By T+144 the winds become
easterlies as high pressure builds to the north.

NOGAPS: http://wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rngp1201.gif
The UK lies under northerlies and westerlies in the main, due to low
pressure over Scandinavia. A second low lies to the SW, bringing easterlies
for SW England and by T+144 it deepens, leading to easterlies for most
areas.

KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif
High pressure covers the British Isles, bringing light winds across the UK.