The GFS 12Z model analysis for Friday 270505 is still available at-
http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/
shows an area of modest CAPE in the south Midlands and the main body of the
plume moving away NE.However, there is also strong CIN in place and drier
air being advected into southern England.Despite reports of highish
dewpoints in England during the morning,the Herstmonceux 12z sounding
suggests these were confined to the surface and there was little moisture
available in depth -
http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/soun...712&STNM=03882
In retrospect the 'slight risk' for an isolated severe convection seems to
have been hopelessly optimistic given the strong cap and lack of substantial
surface CAPE.
One wonders about the prospects for strong surface based convection in
'Spanish Plume' situations this summer given the dryness of France and
southern England.........
However,elevated storms can be spectacular as events earlier this month
showed.If yesterday's elevated convection had occured at night cloud top
cooling would have encouraged a repeat performance,

--
regards,
David

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