What on earth is ESTOFEX Jon?

--
Bernard Burton
Wokingham, Berkshire, UK.

Satellite images at:
www.btinternet.com/~wokingham.weather/wwp.html
"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message
...
"Waghorn" wrote in message
...
The GFS 12Z model analysis for Friday 270505 is still available at-
http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/
shows an area of modest CAPE in the south Midlands and the main body of
the
plume moving away NE.However, there is also strong CIN in place and
drier
air being advected into southern England.Despite reports of highish
dewpoints in England during the morning,the Herstmonceux 12z sounding
suggests these were confined to the surface and there was little
moisture
available in depth -


http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/soun...F%3ASKEWT&YEAR
=2005&MONTH=05&FROM=2712&TO=2712&STNM=03882
In retrospect the 'slight risk' for an isolated severe convection seems
to
have been hopelessly optimistic given the strong cap and lack of
substantial
surface CAPE.
One wonders about the prospects for strong surface based convection in
'Spanish Plume' situations this summer given the dryness of France and
southern England.........
However,elevated storms can be spectacular as events earlier this month
showed.If yesterday's elevated convection had occured at night cloud top
cooling would have encouraged a repeat performance,

There was a fair bit of mid-level TS activity over the northern North Sea
earlier this morning within the 18C theta-w plume
http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_..._000_0850.html
http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rsfloc.gif
There was also some earlier sferics over eastern England (John Whitby's
1420Z report from York).

I'm still puzzled as to why ESTOFEX came up with "Next round for
initiation
will be a cold front,which arrives in the early evening hours from
southwest
and isolated to scattered TSTMs can be expected to develop" - as the major
models (MetO, GFS and ECMWF) all correctly indicated a benign frontal
passage.

Jon.