In article ,
Waghorn writes:
snip
In retrospect the 'slight risk' for an isolated severe convection seems to
have been hopelessly optimistic given the strong cap and lack of substantial
surface CAPE.

Shouldn't that be "hopelessly pessimistic" - at least as far as most of
us are concerned? Better perhaps to avoid value judgements and say
"hopelessly over-estimated".
--
John Hall
"If a man will begin with certainties, he shall end in doubts;
but if he will be content to begin with doubts,
he shall end in certainties." Francis Bacon (1561-1626)