In message , Alastair McDonald
k writes

"Norman Lynagh" wrote in
message ...
In message , JPG
writes

They forecast that by 2050 summer temperatures in the south-east will be
1.5 to
3C warmer than today, while average summer rainfall could fall by 35 per
cent.
If the current rate of warming continues, summers could be as much as 6C
warmer
by the 2080s.

I'd be interested to see the mean surface pressure and upper contour
patterns that go with these predictions. Warmer and drier suggests an
increase in the frequency of anticyclonic southerlies i.e. relatively
high pressure over the near continent. That might mean that further east
there would be a cooling due to a higher frequency of northerlies.

But don't forget that the north will warm too. So the northerlies will not
be as cold as they are today.

I have no problem with the theory that global warming will result in
climate change (and undoubtedly is already) but I have a lot of
difficulty in accepting that the subject is sufficiently well understood
to enable fairly detailed predictions of the changes that will occur at
a spot location (on a global scale SE England is a spot location).

This is the first time I recall the changes to the British climate from
global warming being discussed on this newsgroup. It is not
surprising then, that you think no one has given it much thought.
However there are scientists who have been thinking about those
problems for a considerable time. In 1991, nearly 15 years ago,
the Department of the Environment published a book entitled "The
Potential Effects of Climate Change in the United Kingdom".

My reading is a little bit wider than merely u.s.w. :-)


Basically what will happen is the climate zones will move north,
with the Sahara returning to savannah, and the north shore of the
Mediterranean becoming a desert. (The current drought in Spain
is only a taster.) The Mediterranean climate belt will move north
into the south of England. Meanwhile the increase in global
temperature will have resulted in more evaporation from the oceans
and hence there will be more frequent and heavier rain storms in
that receive rain..

What I assume you are saying is that the sub-tropical ridge will move
polewards, presumably in each hemisphere. The climate zones exist as a
result of the large-scale mean pressure patterns, not the other way
round.

If the sub-tropical ridges move polewards, what happens to the tropical
belt? Does it merely get wider? I find it hard to visualise that there
could be such a huge increase in the area covered by the equatorial
barotropic airmass

Norman.
(delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail)
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
Chalfont St Giles 85m a.s.l.
England