"Les Crossan" wrote in
message . uk...
Everyone -

The 12z gfs run is showing LI -7 CAPE = 2500 for the East Midlands
tomorrow 18z with significant CAPE /LI from Southhampton to the Scottish
Borders. I've never seen a chart like this for the UK before. Ooerr.

http://wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3011.html

Les

Joe Hunt wrote:
"Les Crossan" wrote in
message . uk...



--
Les Crossan,
Wallsend, Tyne & Wear
54.95N 1.5W
Home of the Wallsend StormCam and the Backup USW FAQ -
www.uksevereweather.org.uk

The GFS Cape calculations are highly unlikely to be correct. They are based
on =highly fictictious= Dewpoint's of 23/24C tomorrow afternoon across
England. Highly unlikely to come off. Therefore CAPE and L.I Calculations
will be in error.

TD of 18-19C (maybe 20) would be more realistic and extrapolating them would
give more realistic CAPE values across England.

Little in the way of upper forcing is present, but convergence is present
across the Midlands and parts of N England tomorrow and a shortwave
approaches the west. Potenital for -loaded gun- scenario tomorrow from SE
Wales NE across Mids to Lincs. Temps of 30C TD of 19C releases large amounts
of CAPE and some scattered severe storms are possible running NE from Forest
of Dean to Lincs. Zone shifting east to North of London during the evening.
Tops could easily reach the tropopause which no doubt would release moderate
size hail.


Regards
Paul