"Waghorn" wrote in message
...

"Waghorn" Situation now looking more interesting.
Now for an objective view-
http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/outlooks.cgi

ATM I can't believe the cap won't break tomorrow afternoon sometime,and
where it does the resulting convection must be deep and possibly
severe.Lack
of strong winds aloft might be a limiting factor.
.
the 19Z WV from Cheshire-
http://west-cheshire.ac.uk/weather/e2.asp
is bewilderingly complex with multiple PV anomalies,short waves, west of
the
British Isles and W/SW of Biscay.Waves forming along the CF will make
things...erm...very difficult / very interesting,

--
regards,
David

add '17' to Waghorne to reply

Certainly potential for strong storms to develop. CAP looks quite strong on
00Z Herstmonceux Ascent (given continued warm advection during the day -
this may be hard to break) CAP is less in evidence further north and with
continued development of convegence line from Bristol to Humber this should
prove the main focus for development of afternoon storms. Upper level
dynamics are not great but TW values are high (by UK standards) 19-20C
Dewpoints of similar order are already bring reported from Bristol to
Manchester to Midlands.

If upper forcing was a little stronger (better organised) and the shape of
the upper flow a little different then today could have proved very severe
indeed.

Rgds
Paul