"PJB"
Certainly potential for strong storms to develop. CAP looks quite strong
on
00Z Herstmonceux Ascent (given continued warm advection during the day -
this may be hard to break) CAP is less in evidence further north and with
continued development of convegence line from Bristol to Humber this
should
prove the main focus for development of afternoon storms. Upper level
dynamics are not great but TW values are high (by UK standards) 19-20C
Dewpoints of similar order are already bring reported from Bristol to
Manchester to Midlands.

If upper forcing was a little stronger (better organised) and the shape of
the upper flow a little different then today could have proved very severe
indeed.

Rgds
Paul


Ah you beat me to it.I'm a little uncertain on the upper air for
England.Looking at 0Z GFS PV charts suggests the forcing in the west may be
weak but I would think convergence and topography wld be enough to set
things off in the Welsh Borders,Peak District,possibly even the SW.It also
shows a lobe of PV will arrive over S/SE England later in the day around
the time another maximum in the plume is advected in .So how about something
W/NW of London before midnight?
I agree a jet streak aloft wld have produced very severe weather indeed.
On Monday UKMO suggests the front and plume will become very slow moving
over SE England,

--
regards,
David

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