Ian Waddell wrote:
I thought it would be interesting to think back to the Met Office's
long range forecast issued May/June time this year, widely reported in
the press. In it they speculated that August would see searing heat,
with temparatures well above average.

I don't have the forecast to hand, but recall it was the media that
totally misrepresented a forecast of a slightly above average summer.

It seems from Darren's commentary that the start of August will be
relatively warm, but nothing to write home about - indeed if anything
temperatures a degree or so below average.

In order for the MO to be correct, there will have to be some serious
heat in the last two weeks of August.

I think we should write "media", rather than MO, in sentence above.

For me, it goes to show that forecasting these days seems to be more
about headline grabbing and soundbites rather than meaningful,
considered remarks. Even the use of probabilities and confidence in
the earlier articles would have sufficed.

It's not the forecasting itself which is about headline grabbing - but
the way it is put across in the press and other forms of media.

My question is this - is it the media doctoring UKMO output, or are
both the media and UKMO to blame for setting expectations incorrectly?

I doubt the MO can be blamed if its output is totally misconstrued. I
vageuly recall the MO had to put out a follow up soon after to correct
the sensationalist articles that followed the original forecast

--
Mike Coleraine - posting via Google