wrote in message
oups.com...
The BBC1 forecast at 2235 was very vague about the weekend, basically
"we haven't a clue" but I do remember Friday's temperatures were
twenty-something, so slightly more hopeful I guess...

Nick

In the short term events today and Friday will be highly sensitive to
developments along the cold front and over France.
Current UKMO has a low developing SE England/NW France -
http://meteonet.nl/aktueel/brackall.htm
perhaps due to organised thunderstorms from France.It includes the
prefrontal trough forecast yesterday by the GFS over eastern
England.Hopefully a RAOB will be available from Larkhill this morning to see
what the the strength of the 'lid' might be and any developing mixed layer
aloft.Any thunderstorms over the E/Se later today may well be elevated.
NMM has consistently predicted rain confined to the CF on Friday morning for
the SE.
For the weekend events are sensitive to downstream developments due to TS
irene as it goes extratropical in the eastern Atlantic and bombs towards
Iceland.
Both scenarios are notorious for producing forecast uncertainty at short
range,


--
regards,
David

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